Election Oracle: 2011

It’s been about a year and a half since I’ve made any posts on this blog. Life has made it hard to keep up with the writing and there’s a good community of Manitoba bloggers that keep the ideas flowing and the debates going. While I’m not sure if I’ll bring this blog back to life at some point, I’m happy for now to use it for my election predictions. Usually, I come in a bit closer than just about anyone, but we’ll see if that holds true for this time, especially when the last polls of the campaign are still showing increased movement toward the NDP.

Canada

Last election (incl byelections): C 145, N 36, L 77, B 49, I1
Prediction: C 152, N 84, L 51, B 20, I 1

They key question from the start of the campaign was whether the Conservatives would get a minority or majority. The second that emerged was whether the NDP will form the Official Opposition. I’m predicting 152 Conservatives, which is a small increase and within a few seats of a majority. If I’m wrong and they pick up a few extra Liberal seats in Ontario, then they may eke out a slight majority. The NDP will be solidly in second place, even if their organization can’t convert all of their support into hard votes. The last few polls of the campaign have showed the NDP numbers still increasing, but I’ve tried to offer fairly conservative predictions.

If my prediction is right, it’ll be a tepid win for the Conservatives – they’ll have yet another minority, leaving them unable to push their agenda through Parliament, but it’ll be a strong minority, which means they’ll be too strong to be pushed aside by an opposition coalition. It’s a historic rout for the Liberals and one from which they may never recover, if a British-style left-right realignment is the outcome. It’s also a crushing defeat for the Bloc in Quebec, which has dominated since their formation in the early 1990s. Now they’re more of a chip than a block. For the NDP, it’s an astonishing result and an endorsement of Jack Layton’s style and direction.

So what lies ahead? For the Conservatives, they’ll continue in a minority government and continue strategizing about how to hold back the NDP from further growth. I can only hope that the Conservatives see this election as a sign that Canadians prefer vision and substance over dirty tricks and character assassinations, but that might be too much to hope for. It may get worse yet.

For the NDP, as Official Opposition, the task ahead will be one of discipline, coalition building (informal rather than formal) and developing an image, platform and strategy for forming government. All parties go through some growing pains as they transition from a protest party into a governing party and the federal NDP won’t be any different. As well, with Liberals, Bloquistes and Greens all migrating to the NDP, the party may no longer be interested in a formal merger or coalition deal. The new NDP is the coalition.

For the Liberals and Bloc, regrouping will be tough. Right-wing Liberals may gravitate to the Conservatives in the hopes of stopping further NDP growth. Left-wing Liberals who’ve flirted with the NDP but saw them as having no chance of forming government will now feel the pressure to move to the NDP. With the Liberals in third place, potential candidates, leaders and donors will now all be much harder to come by. For their part, Bloc members may wonder what point there is in sticking around. More socially conservative nationalists may drift to the Conservatives while left-leaning ones will feel compelled to join many of their colleagues in supporting what is now the largest social democratic party in Quebec. The Bloc and Liberals will try to convince voters that this election was a blip or a one-off event, but clawing their way back isn’t going to be easy.

Atlantic

Last election: C 11, N 4, L 17
Prediction: C 14, N 7, L 11

Apart from several Conservative and NDP pickups, I expect the Atlantic to be mostly unchanged, even though some polls are pointing to a last-minute NDP surge here. I see Tory pickups in Avalon, Malpeque, Madawaska-Restigouche and Moncton and one loss to the NDP in Nova Scotia’s South Shore. Look also for NDP gains in St. John’s South and Dartmouth.

Possible surprises: Tory win in Random-Burin-St. George or NDP wins in Central Nova (Peter McKay) or Halifax West. Some pundits have suggested these, but I’m sceptical they’ll happen.

Quebec

Last election: C 10, N 1, L 14, B 49, I1
Prediction: C 8, N 36, L 10, B 20, I1

The story here is the catastrophic meltdown of the Bloc and the meteoric rise of the NDP. Many pundits are completely puzzled by the NDP’s strength, but the party’s been laying the groundwork for growth and seeing incremental results for years. Of course, the perfect storm of good fortune for the NDP in this election helped throw open the flood gates. I predict Duceppe will lose his own seat in Laurier-Ste-Marie, making the Bloc’s collapse even more stunning. Look for NDP gains throughout the Montreal/Laval, Gatineau and Quebec City regions.

While the Liberals will lose some seats to the NDP, including Westmount, NDG, Lasalle-Émard and Hull-Aylmer, the few good news stories of the night will come when they pick up Bloc seats (Ahuntsic, Haute-Gaspésie and possibly Brome-Missisquoi where Denis Paradis is running) as the NDP siphons away Bloc votes. The Tories will lose Beauport-Limoilou, Charlesbourg and Pontiac (Lawrence Cannon, one of my least favourite MPs) to the NDP, but should hold on to the rest. Unfortunately, independent Arthur André, known for working another job while being an MP and making intolerant comments on the radio, will probably eke out a victory over his Bloc and NDP competitors.

Possible surprises: Everywhere, as untouchable Bloc and Liberal strongholds fall. Watch for NDP star candidate and Innu leader Romeo Saganash in a close battle with the Bloc for his northern Quebec seat.

Ontario

Last election: C 52, N 17 , L 37
Prediction: C 60, N 22, L 24

With Quebec not interested in their party, the Tories needed Ontario to get their majority. It would have worked well if the NDP only cut into the Liberal vote, so as to toss Liberal-Conservative races to the Tories, but the NDP have pulled votes from the Tories too. I predict most new wins for the NDP in the Toronto area, including Beaches-East York, Davenport, Oshawa, Parkdale-High Park and and York South-Weston. I think they’ll also win Oshawa from the Cons.

The Liberals, squeezed from both sides, will probably lose around one third of their Ontario seats, including many in the 905 belt. The Holland-Alexander race has drawn a lot of attention in Ajax-Pickering. I predict a Tory win there as well as in Mississauga South, Brampton-Springdale and Brampton West. A few Toronto seats are likely to swing Tory as well (a first since the 1980s), giving them Don Valley West, Eglinton-Lawrence and York Centre.

Possible surprises: I expect Iggy will be safe in his own seat, but a surprise of the night could be the Tories giving him a run in his home seat. If the NDP really surprises, they may pick up Scarborough Southwest, Guelph, Essex, Kenora and others, but I expect they’ll fall a little short in these ridings.

Manitoba

Last election: C 9, N 3 , L 2
Prediction: C 9, N 4, L 1

I don’t expect the electoral drama that’s going on in most other provinces to really reach us here in Manitoba. The NDP should win Winnipeg North back from the Liberals in a close race, giving us the same result as in 2008.

Possible surprises: The Conservatives could surprise and win Winnipeg South-Centre from the Liberals or Elmwood-Transcona from the NDP, but I don’t think their numbers are quite high enough to do it.

Saskatchewan and Alberta

Last election: C 40, N 1 , L 1
Prediction: C 39, N 2, L 1

There is NDP momentum in our two neighbouring prairie provinces, but it’s probably not enough to make many seats change hands. NDP targets include Palliser, Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, Edmonton Centre and Edmonton East. Of these, I predict an NDP win in the Saskatoon seat with tighter races but not wins elsewhere.

Possible surprises: Conservative nomination loser James Ford is running again as an Independent in Edmonton--Sherwood Park and there’s an outside chance he could pull off an upset. The NDP might also surprise with a second seat in Alberta. On the other hand, it’ll be one of the few big letdowns of the night for New Democrats if they surge Canada-wide but end up shut out of Saskatchewan again.

British Columbia

Last election: C 22, N 9 , L 5
Prediction: C 21, N 12, L 3

The NDP has seen big upward movement in their poll numbers here as in most other provinces and it should gain them a few more seats. On election night, watch for them battling to pick up Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, Vancouver Island North and Surrey North from Tories, while the Tories fight close races to pick up Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca (vacated by Keith Martin) and Vancouver South (Ujjal Dosanjh).

The Greens are of course hoping for a win in Saanich-Gulf Islands, where Elizabeth May is running. It’s their one shot at a seat and I think they’ll fall well short, despite the poll they released claiming they’re in the lead.

Possible surprises: A stunning upset could come if Hedy Fry is defeated by the NDP in Vancouver Centre or if Elizabeth May somehow does pull off a win on Vancouver Island. A last minute NDP surge might also toss them some seats they haven’t won since 1988.

The North

Last election: C 1, N 1 , L 1
Prediction: C 1, N 1, L 1

Don’t forget about the north! I predict one seat apiece for each of the three parties – same as last time. The NDP in the Western Arctic (NWT) and the Conservative in Nunavut each stave off a former Territorial Premier running as the Liberal candidate.

Photo: John William Waterhouse's Consulting the Oracle, 1882.

Prairie Topiary out-predicts other pundits!

Time for some gloating: I predicted the correct result in 287 out of 308 seats, for a 93% success rate. That's down from my 95% success rate in last year's provincial election, but it beats out Democratic Space's 92% (282 correct) and Election Prediction Project's 91% (281). My totals were also much closer than theirs -- you'd need to switch the result in only seven seats to match my predicted totals. It seems that just about everyone, including the rational investors putting their money down at the UBC election stock market, thought the Tories would do worse and the Liberals better than I did.

Final result: CON 143, LIB 76, NDP 37, BQ 50, IND 2
PT's prediction: CON 137, LIB 80, NDP 40, BQ 49, IND 2

Curtis Brown also did very well in his predictions, beating out most other pundits; his were CON 137, LIB 86, Bloc 49, NDP 37 and Ind 2. He'd have to change the result in just 10 seats to be dead on.

Bart the fish (aka Warren Kinsella), whose prediction was 135 CON, 75 LIB, 50 Bloc, 40 NDP and "some Green stuff" was also quite close.

What now?

For the Liberals, the question will be whether Dion can hang on. I doubt he will. And that leaves Bob Rae as the frontrunner for a job that will involve a lot of party rebuilding.

For the NDP, it's onward. Though last night's seat count is their second-best result in history, there were certainly many disappointments, especially the loss of MPs Catherine Bell and Peggy Nash, being shut out of Saskatchewan for the third time and not winning more than one seat in Quebec. Those are balanced with proud wins in Alberta and Newfoundland and the near-sweep of northern Ontario.

For the Bloc, they've made it clear they're still a force to be reckoned with, but now will face continued questions of their purpose in Ottawa and whether Duceppe will continue to stick around.

For Harper, he can govern with a little bit more of a comfort level, but with opposition control of the committees in particular, the next Parliament may be as frustrating as the last. We may well be back at this in a year or two.

For me, I have a flight to catch and a short, but thankfully election- and punditry-free holiday to enjoy.

Election Oracle 2008: wrap up

Prairie Topiary's predictions suggest the following result (with change since 2006 in parentheses):

Con 137 (+13)
Lib 80 (-23)
Bloc 49 (-2)
NDP 40 (+11)
Ind 2 (+1)
Green 0 (-)



I feel I’ve been fairly conservative in my predictions, usually siding with the incumbent in what I believe to be extremely close races. In particular, I’ve been fairly conservative in predicting NDP wins. Party supporters are often overzealous in predicting wins for their own party and I’d like to avoid falling into that trap. I obviously hope for higher numbers, and I won’t be terribly surprised if the party picks up ten more seats than I predicted tomorrow night. Tomorrow will tell all.

If these do turn out to be the results of tomorrow’s election, then we can expect every party to feel a mix of elation and disappointment. The Tories will be happy to have gained some extra seats, but disappointed for having failed to attain a majority. The Liberals will be relieved to see that the world didn’t end for their party, but disappointed to have lost so many seats. The NDP will be elated to see its caucus expand by 25%, but will wish they had gained more, perhaps even to surpass the Liberals or at least their best-ever seat count. The Bloc will be happy to see it hold Quebec, but will face tough questions about its purpose in the new House of Commons and after Gilles Duceppe’s departure (I’m betting he’ll step down before the next election). Finally, the Greens will be saddened to again be without any MPs in the House, but will see a silver lining in their increase in popular vote and important role in this campaign.

For comparison, here are the predictions of a few other pundits:

Democratic Space: Con 128, Lib 92, Bloc 52, NDP 34, Ind 2, Green 0

Election Prediction Project: Con 125, Lib 94, Bloc 51, NDP 36, Ind 2, Green 0

Nixtuff: Con 124, Lib 88, Bloc 51, NDP 42, Ind 2, Green 1

Paulitics: Con 131-133, Lib 80-81, Bloc 55, NDP 38-40, Ind 1-2, Green 0

Trendlines: Con 132, Lib 84, Bloc 52, NDP 39, Ind 1, Green 0

UBC Election Stock Market (rounded): Con 129, Lib 88, Bloc 48, NDP 40, Other 2

Sovereignty en Anglais: Con 123, Lib 94, Bloc 55, NDP 34, Ind 2, Green 0

EKOS (Oct. 10) : Con 152, Lib 60, Bloc 57, NDP 39, Other 0

LISPOP: Con 135, Lib 87, Bloc 51, NDP 33, Ind 2, Green 0

Hill & Knowlton: Con 124, Lib 86, Bloc 56, NDP 42, Ind 0, Green 0

Vote for Environment projection: Con 131, Lib 85, Bloc 52, NDP 38, Other 2

Interestingly, compared to these, my results are high for the Conservatives and NDP and low for the Liberals and Bloc. Feel free to post other predictions in my comments section.

Photo: John William Waterhouse - The Crystal Ball (1902, oil on canvas)

Election Oracle 2008: BC and the North

British Columbia is a true three-way race. Polls have showed buoyant Conservative numbers here. The Liberals, which many polls showed in fourth place in mid-campaign, have recovered somewhat, while the NDP, traditionally very strong in BC, are likely down in some parts of the province and up elsewhere.

Greater Vancouver/Lower Mainland

In greater Vancouver and the lower mainland, there are 21 seats and, of these, eight elected Conservatives, eight elected Liberals, and five elected New Democrats. Liberal slippage, much of it to the Greens, will likely mean Conservative gains in suburban Vancouver: namely, in North Vancouver, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast and Richmond. This will mean the loss of Liberal Don Bell, turfed Liberal-turned-Green Blair Wilson, and Liberal Raymond Chan. The NDP should win the same five it won before, while Liberals will likely fend off strong challenges in Newton-North Delta (Sukh Dhaliwal), Vancouver Centre (Hedy Fry), and Vancouver-Quadra (Joyce Murray). Many expect David Emerson’s former riding of Vancouver-Kingsway to go NDP, but I think Wendy Yuan of the Liberals will eke out an extremely narrow win.

2006 result: Con 8, Lib 8, NDP 5
2008 prediction: Con 11, Lib 5, NDP 5

BC Interior

There are nine seats in BC’s interior and, in 2006, they split 7-2 Conservative-NDP. The NDP should easily hold its BC Southern Interior and Skeena-Bulkley Valley seats, plus are likely to present a strong, but ultimately unsuccessful, challenge in Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo.

2006 result: Con 7, NDP 2
2008 prediction: Con 7, NDP 2

Vancouver Island

There are six seats on Vancouver Island: 3 NDP, 2 Conservative, 1 Liberal. With the NDP candidate withdrawing in Saanich-Gulf Islands, the Liberals and Greens are both eyeing this seat. The race will be closer than ever, but I think the Conservative will prevail as the opposition vote splits.

Neighbouring Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca is also a close race, perhaps too close to call. Liberal – once Reform Party – MP Keith Martin is fending off very strong challenges from both the Conservatives and NDP, the latter team of which gained a pile of volunteers following the events in Saanich-GI. I will call this race narrowly for the incumbent.

In Vancouver Island North perennial competitors Catherine Bell of the NDP (currently the MP) and John Duncan of the Conservatives (formerly the MP) are again facing off. A mere 600 votes separated the two last time. I predict slight momentum for the Conservatives here, meaning that John Duncan will likely regain his seat.

2006 result: Con 2, Lib 1, NDP 3
2008 prediction: Con 3, Lib 1, NDP 2

BC Provincial total

2006 result: Con 17, Lib 9, NDP 10
2008 prediction: Con 21, Lib 6, NDP 9

Northern Canada

I’m also including the three northern seats (one for each Territory) here. The Liberals will easily hold the Yukon, while the NDP will easily hold Western Arctic. The wild card is Nunavut, where prominent candidates for all four parties are running. I place my bet on former territorial cabinet minister Leona Aglukkaq, who is running for the Conservatives.

2006 result: Con 0, Lib 2, NDP 1
2008 prediction: Con 1, Lib 1, NDP 1

Election Oracle 2008: Alberta

In Alberta, election drama comes at a premium price. Who won every seat in 2006? Who’s likely to again win every seat? Who always wins? Yeah, you guessed it.

In this campaign, only the riding of Edmonton-Strathcona has a real chance of electing a non-Tory. There, NDP candidate Linda Duncan is running a very high-profile campaign. In 2006, she came less than 5,000 votes from toppling MP Rahim Jaffer. This time, known Liberals have been endorsing Duncan while Layton has been visiting Edmonton a bunch of times. The race is truly neck-and-neck. It’s hard to defeat an incumbent, so I’m predicting a slim Tory hold. I hope I’m wrong.

A couple of other candidates have longer shot odds of winning. These are former Alberta NDP leader Ray Martin running in Edmonton East (the only federal Alberta riding the NDP’s ever held), independent Jimmy Ford in Edmonton-Sherwood Park, and Liberal James Wachowich in Edmonton Centre (Anne McLellan’s old riding). I predict Conservative wins in these ridings.

2006 result: Con 28
2008 prediction: Con 28

Election Oracle 2008: Atlantic Canada

In Atlantic Canada, the Tories were set for larger gains, but have slid in the last half of the campaign. While they are weak in Nova Scotia and face Danny Williams’s ABC campaign in Newfoundland and Labrador, they are likely to win additional seats in New Brunswick. The NDP is also very strong in the region, but may have difficulty translating the increased support into additional seats.

Newfoundland and Labrador

In Newfoundland and Labrador, Premier Danny Williams has led the ABC ("Anyone but Conservative") campaign against the federal Tories. Given Williams’s popularity, two of the three Conservative MPs for the province have opted not to run again. That leaves only the riding of Avalon, where I predict Conservative MP Fabian Manning will squeak through, despite the ABC campaign. In St. John’s, the NDP is running a strong campaign and will prevail in St. John’s East with former provincial leader Jack Harris as candidate. Though it's a close race, I predict the Liberals will take the city’s other riding, St. John’s West. The Liberals will clean up in the province’s remaining ridings.

2006 result: Con 3, Lib 4, NDP 0
2008 prediction: Con 1, Lib 5, NDP 1

Prince Edward Island

In PEI, the Liberals are likely to sail to victory in three ridings, but face a tough challenge in Egmont, the province’s fourth riding. There, former PEI Transportation Minister Gail Shea is attempting to win for the Conservatives and is ahead by several points, according to at least one riding poll. Nevertheless, I think the Liberals will hold this riding for yet another sweep of the province.

2006 result: Lib 4
2008 prediction: Lib 4

Nova Scotia

In Nova Scotia, the Conservatives are down several points, and up against Green leader Elizabeth May in Central Nova, former Conservative MP Bill Casey, who is running as an independent in Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley, and a number of strong NDP and Liberal candidates.

I predict a relatively easy hold for McKay in Central Nova and a tighter win for Gerald Keddy in South Shore-St. Margaret's against former NDP MP Gordon Earle. They Tories are likely to lose in close races against Bill Casey in the seat they formerly held and against Robert Thibault, the Liberal MP in West Nova who manages to offend someone every time he speaks.

The NDP are very strong and will easily retain their two seats. While they are putting on very impressive campaigns in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour, Central Nova, and South Shore-St. Margaret's, I predict no additional seats. With their strength in areas such as Cape Breton, the Liberals will likely easily hold their remaining seats.

2006 result: Con 3, Lib 6, NDP 2, Ind 0
2008 prediction: Con 2, Lib 6, NDP 2, Ind 1

New Brunswick

New Brunswick is the Atlantic province where the Conservatives stand the greatest chance of gaining seats. They will likely win in Fredericton, where the Liberal incumbent is not running again, and the three-way race of Madawaska—Restigouche, where former NB cabinet minister Jean-Pierre Ouellet is running. Saint John, where incumbent Liberal Paul Zed is facing former Tory MLA Rodney Weston, is the hardest race to predict, but I’m going to call it for the Conservatives given the very narrow Liberal win in 2006 and the Tory history of the riding (remember Elsie Wayne?).

2006 result: Con 3, Lib 6, NDP 1
2008 prediction: Con 6, Lib 3, NDP 1

Atlantic Canada total

2006 result: Con 9, Lib 20, NDP 3, Ind 0
2008 prediction: Con 9, Lib 18, NDP 4, Ind 1

Election Oracle 2008: Quebec

In Quebec, at the start of the campaign, the Tories were all set to scoop up perhaps up to 20 seats from the Bloc. But that all changed as the Bloc, aided by the other opposition parties, were able to make the arts funding cuts a major issue in Quebec. As Tory numbers plummeted to below their 2006 level, the Bloc continued to rise. It may be that the Bloc’s surge has abated, but for the Tories, the damage has been done: the majority is denied.

The Liberals remain strong in Montreal, and may win some Bloc seats there, but are a non-player in most regions outside the city. The NDP has seen its support more than double in the province, with strength in Montreal and the capital region, but that seems to have subsided late in the campaign. The Conservatives will struggle to hold on to their seats, while the Bloc will emerge from the campaign seemingly renewed.

Montreal region

In the region of Montreal, there are 22 seats, of which 10 were won by the Bloc and 12 by the Liberals in 2006. The NDP’s Thomas Mulcair later won the long-time Liberal seat of Outremont in a by-election and looks set to be re-elected there. The NDP is running a very strong campaign in Westmount-Ville Marie with star candidate Anne Lagacé-Dowson, but I predict a Liberal hold. The only other changes for this region are two Bloc seats that will likely be re-taken by the Liberals: former MP Eleni Bakopanos who lost by less than 1,000 votes in 2006 is running in Ahuntsic and will likely take that seat, while Justin Trudeau, son of Pierre, is running in a very tight race in Papineau and will likely defeat Bloc MP Vivian Barbot. Thierry St. Cyr, the Bloc MP for Jeanne-Le Ber, will likely hold his seat, despite a strong challenge from both the Liberals and NDP.

2006 result: Lib 12, Bloc 10, NDP 0
2008 prediction: Lib 13, Bloc 8, NDP 1

Northern Quebec

Northern Quebec has ten seats, of which nine were won by the Bloc in 2006. The Conservatives won one seat here in 2006 and added another in a 2007 by-election. I predict the Conservatives will hold their two seats, including Jonquière-Alma, where polls apparently show the Bloc ahead of Tory MP Jean Pierre Blackburn. The Bloc should easily hold their remaining eight seats.

2006 result: Con 1, Bloc 9
2008 prediction: Con 2, Bloc 8

Rest of Quebec

The rest of Quebec, which comprises a variety of very different regions, contains 43 seats. In 2006, 32 went Bloc, while 9 went Conservative, one went Liberal, and one elected an independent. The rise in Bloc fortunes has shifted the political scene toward one very similar to 2006 and I expect remarkably few changes as a result.

The only change I do predict is that the Conservatives will lose MP Luc Harvey in Louis-Hébert. While they’ll hold the rest of their seats, they’ll be disappointed when Senator Michael Fortier loses in Vaudreuil-Soulanges. Independent quasi-Tory MP André Arthur will have no problem being re-elected in his riding.

As for challengers, in Brome-Mississquoi, it looks like the Bloc’s strength will ensure that Liberal Denis Paradis will fail in his comeback bid. In Gatineau and Hull-Aylmer, two seats very heavily targeted by the NDP, I predict re-election for the Bloc and Liberal candidates, respectively. In Rimouski, where Bloc-turned-Independent MP Louise Thibault is running, expect the new Bloc candidate to win. The Bloc should also win again in the closely watched ridings of Sherbrooke, Saint-Lambert, and Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot.

2006 result: Con 9, Bloc 32, Lib 1, NDP 0, Ind 1
2008 prediction: Con 8, Bloc 33, Lib 1, NDP 0, Ind 1

Provincial total

2006 result: Con 10, Bloc 51, Lib 13, NDP 0, Ind 1
2008 prediction: Con 10, Bloc 49, Lib 14, NDP 1, Ind 1

Election Oracle 2008: Ontario

In Ontario, the NDP has seen its numbers soar, with noted strength in Toronto, industrial regions, and northern Ontario. In suburban and exurban areas, the Liberals have seen losses to the Greens in particular, which has endangered many Liberal incumbents hoping to fend off Tory challenges. Had the bad economic news of the last couple of weeks not happened, the Tories would likely have cleaned up in many parts of the province. Instead, the Liberals saw a bit of a bump in their numbers and go into tomorrow’s election having likely reduced the number of losses they’ll see.

GTA/905 belt

In the GTA/905 region, into which I’m including Hamilton, Welland and Niagara Falls, there are 54 seats. The Liberals won 37 of these in 2006, leaving just 11 for the Conservatives and 6 for the NDP.

For this election, I’m predicting that the NDP’s Marilyn Churley will pick up Beaches-East York, knocking off Liberal MP Maria Minna. Peggy Nash will also fend off Liberal leadership contender Gerard Kennedy’s attempt to retake Parkdale-High Park, while Liberals hopes of making a return to Hamilton will also fail. In Welland, the NDP’s Malcolm Allen is likely to defeat sitting Liberal MP John Maloney, while in Oshawa, CAW activist Mike Shields will likely defeat Tory MP Colin Carrie by a very small margin. The NDP also threaten incumbents in Davenport and York South-Weston, but I predict the Liberals will hold on to those.

The Liberals also face losses to the Conservatives in this region. In Mississauga, Liberals Paul Szabo and Omar Alghabra are likely to face defeat, while floor crosser currently-Tory Wahid Khan will survive a strong Liberal challenge. Finally, Belinda Stronach’s old seat of Newmarket Aurora will return to the Tory fold under Lois Brown, while another Brown – Oakville Liberal MP Bonnie Brown – will see her seat move to the Tory side of the House.

2006 result: Con 11, Lib 37, NDP 6
2008 prediction: Con 15, Lib 30, NDP 9

Southwestern Ontario

Southwestern Ontario has 22 seats, in which 12 went Conservative, 7 went Liberal, and 3 went NDP in 2006. The Liberals have dropped somewhat throughout the region, while the NDP is strong in and around the Windsor region. Even a small decline in numbers for the Liberals will send three of their seats (Brant, Huron-Bruce and London West) into the Tory fold, which is what I expect to occur.

In this region, many eyes will be on Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound and Guelph for the strong Green challenges in those ridings (and a fantastic candidate for the NDP, Tom King, in Guelph), but I predict a Tory win in the former and a Liberal win in the latter. Some also speak of NDP strength in Essex, which neighbours Windsor; I predict the Tory will hold there.

2006 result: Con 12, Lib 7, NDP 3
2008 prediction: Con 15, Lib 4, NDP 3

Eastern Ontario

There are 20 seats in eastern Ontario, which includes the capital region, and it strongly voted Conservative in 2006. Only parts of Ottawa and Kingston managed to elect non-Tory MPs.

In this election, I predict no seat changes for the region. Liberal David McGuinty is perhaps most at risk of losing his seat, but I predict a Liberal hold. A lot of noise has been made about Ottawa Liberals Penny Collenette and David Pratt taking on NDP MP Paul Dewar and Tory MP John Baird, respectively, but both MPs will easily coast to re-election.

2006 result: Con 16, Lib 3, NDP 1
2008 prediction: Con 16, Lib 3, NDP 1

Northern Ontario

In northern Ontario, the NDP has been surging and Liberal incumbents are running scared. The NDP’s strong campaign, including its release of a northern Ontario platform and the relatively high profile of a number of its candidates, has help the party build on existing strengths in the region. Expect the party to pick up both Thunder Bay seats, plus Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing and Nickel Belt from the Liberals. I also predict a narrow win for the NDP in Kenora’s three-way race, but a loss against Sudbury Liberal Diane Marleau.

2006 result: Con 1, Lib 7, NDP 2
2008 prediction: Con 1, Lib 2, NDP 7

Provincial total

2006 result: Con 40, Lib 54, NDP 12
2008 prediction: Con 47, Lib 39, NDP 20

Election Oracle 2008: MB and SK

Here are the first of my regional predictions. Others will follow shortly.

Manitoba
In Manitoba, expect the Conservatives to hold all their seats, plus pick up St. Boniface from the Liberals, who won it by only 1,500 votes in the last election. The Liberals are also likely to lose Churchill to NDP candidate Niki Ashton, leaving them with just one seat of the 14 in Manitoba.

2006 result: Con 8, Lib 3, NDP 3
2008 prediction: Con 9, Lib 1, NDP 4

Saskatchewan
I also predict few changes for neighbouring Saskatchewan. There’s been a lot of talk about Liberal Ralph Goodale facing a tough challenge from the Conservatives. Others have suggested that Conservatives Tom Lukiwski and Andrew Scheer might be in tough fights with the NDP. Still others point to newly elected Tory MP Robert Clarke struggling to fend off Liberal David Orchard. I expect all these MPs to be re-elected.

Where the races are interesting are in two seats in which incumbents are not running for re-election: Palliser and Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar. Both seats feature close races between the Conservatives and the NDP. I think former Moose Jaw Mayor Ray Boughen will take Palliser for the Conservatives, while the NDP’s Nettie Wiebe will prevail in Saskatoon.

2006 result: Con 12, Lib 2, NDP 0
2008 prediction: Con 12, Lib 1, NDP 1

Election Oracle 2008

Prairie Topiary's Election Oracle is back!

I'll post detailed province-by-province predictions here on Monday afternoon after I take a glance at the last of Nanos's daily tracking polls.

This weekend's polls show the Conservatives recovering some of the points they lost to the Liberals in the past week. The Conservatives are still down significantly in Atlantic Canada and Quebec, while the NDP looks to be down a few points in BC. Nanos shows the NDP's numbers holding strong at 22% nationally, which is probably the highest they've been all campaign. I suspect that the NDP pretty much neutralized any strategic voting lure of the Liberals, though a decline in their numbers tomorrow might suggest otherwise.

Of course, accurate predictions require something more than just poll numbers. They have to include consideration of regional swings, the influence of "star" personalities and the added recognition factor that comes from being an incumbent, as well as the role of strong local organization and "top of mind" brand status (e.g., Greens are less "top of mind" and tend to worse than the polls suggest on election day, while the opposite is often the case for the Liberals). Anticipating last minute shifts in support can also be key.

I may yet change these numbers, but right now I'm predicting the following:

Conservative minority (141 seats)

Liberal Official Opposition (76 seats)

Bloc (49 seats)

NDP (40 seats)

Independent 2

Green 0

That's a notable increase in seats for the Conservatives and NDP at the expense of the Liberals. It's not inconceivable that the NDP could surpass its highest ever popular vote (20.4% in 1988) and seat count (it held 44 seats following a win in a 1989 byelection). Passing the Bloc to become the third largest party in the House might also be possible, but passing the Liberals is unlikely, as that could only come through a Liberal meltdown in Toronto and Atlantic Canada, two areas where Liberal numbers appear to have been strengthening in the last week.

Stay tuned for more details tomorrow.

Photo: A female bowl bearer or mboko from the Luba culture in the Congo. Traditionally, bowl bearers are used by royal diviners to predict the future.

Dreaming big

Following a stream of historically poor Liberal poll numbers, some campaign observers are beginning to ask whether the NDP is about to surpass the Liberals (see here, here and here) and form Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition in the next parliament.

Indeed, the big fantasy of the federal NDP, and likely a prerequisite for the party to ever become a true national contender for power, has always been to surpass the Liberal Party. New Democrtas believe this milestone would give rise to a new political polarization between the right and left, thus damning the Liberals to the political wilderness forever.

This thinking is never far from the minds of NDP strategists, who face the tricky task of fighting the Tories without inadvertently sinking themselves by helping the Liberals who, for their part, adeptly hug the middle, adopting the rhetoric and policies of the right or the left in whatever combination is most likely to win them power.

The model of political polarization the NDP seeks emerged in Britain in the first half of the 20th century as the Labour Party surpassed the Liberals, who were never again to taste power. Canadian examples can be found in Saskatchewan, Manitoba and BC, though sometimes this is in a two-party system with the Liberals on the right (e.g., Saskatchewan's anti-medicare Liberals of the 1960s and 1970s and the current right-leaning Liberals in BC, who replaced the Social Credit Party there). Polarization is arguably occurring in Nova Scotia where the NDP appears close to winning power and the Liberals slip further into third place every election.

The big question: can it happen federally? As things stand, the New Democrats are likely to make gains and the Liberals likely to suffer losses, but can the shift be dramatic enough for the NDP to form Official Opposition? Some polls show the gap between the two parties to be as little as 3%, a level of competitiveness not seen since around 1990.

So what would it take?

First, it's important to note that the NDP need not necessarily surpass the Liberals in popular vote to surpass them in seats. This is because, generally-speaking, the Liberals' votes tend to be more evenly spread than either the Conservatives' or the NDPs' votes, which tend to be concentrated in particular areas. This tends to make the Liberals more efficient than other parties at converting votes into seats when they're popular but less inefficient than other parties when they're unpopular. In 1984, the Liberal-NDP gap was 28% to 19%, but the seat gap was only 40-30. Another percentage point or two might have pushed the NDP into second.

To come in second in this election, the NDP would likely have to win at least 60 seats or so, with the Liberals falling below that number. The losses for the Liberals in Ontario, where they won 54 seats in 2006, would have to especially large. Specifically, we'd need to see the following:

Ontario

Liberal numbers would have to drop below 30% from the mid-to-high 30s where they are now, while the NDP would have to climb 5 points or so to the low 20s, with noted strength in northern Ontario. The Tories would break 40%. Liberal losses to both the Conservatives and NDP, plus bleeding to the Greens in vulnerable suburban ridings, would result in a seat count of something like this:
Con 55 / Lib 28 / NDP 23 (2006: Con 40 / Lib 54 / NDP 12)

Quebec

Bloc numbers would have to stay over 30%, around where they're hovering now, as continued Bloc leakage to the Tories and NDP will produce new victories for the Liberals. The Tories would have to stay around their current 30% while the the NDP approached 20% (up from about 15% now). This might yield something like this:
Bloc 33 / Con 23 / Lib 14 / NDP 4 / Ind 1
(2006: Bloc 51 / Con 10 / Lib 13 / Ind 1)

Atlantic Canada

The Tories would need to gain only a few points (to maybe 36%) at the expense of the Liberals for them to steal a number of close Liberal seats in Nova Scotia, PEI and especially New Brunswick. This would offset Tory losses that are all but guaranteed in NL (a victim of Danny Williams's ABC campaign). The NDP, who are already up a few points over their 22% in 2006, would have to eke out a few new victories in St. John's and Nova Scotia. In seats, that would probably come out to something like this:
Con 14 / Lib 10 / NDP 7 / Ind 1
(2006: Con 9 / Lib 20 / NDP 3)

Prairies

On the prairies, a couple of points gained for the NDP over their 2006 numbers could give them up to five more seats (I can't see the party winning more than three in Saskatchewan). The Tories would have to win some, lose some, leaving the Liberals with 1-2 seats in total on the Prairies. That would leave something like the following seat count:
Con 46 / NDP 8 / Lib 2 (2006: Con 48 / NDP 3 / Lib 5)

BC

NDP numbers have been strengthening in BC in the last week. Two or three more points would put them over 30% and win them a few new seats at the expense of both other parties. The Liberals, who are bleeding to the Greens in suburban Vancouver, would see some seat losses to the Tories. That could leave the situation something like this:
Con 18 / NDP 17 / Lib 1 (2006: Con 17 / NDP 10 / Lib 9)

North

A territorial seat for each party as the Cons pick up Nunavut:
Con 1 / Lib 1 / NDP 1 (2006: Lib 2 / NDP 1)

Nationally

In order to make the above happen, the NDP would need something in the range of 22%, while the Liberals could have no more than about 26%. In addition, the shift in numbers would have to be in the right regions. The above seat counts total as follows:
Con 157 / NDP 60 / Lib 56 / Bloc 33 / Ind 2
(2006: Con 124 / Lib 103 / NDP 29 / Bloc 51 / Ind 1)

The above exercise, apart from being fun (it's still more fun than realistic at this point), suggests it's narrowly possible for the NDP to surpass the Liberals. I would suggest that it remains an uphill battle for the NDP and that they shouldn't underestimate the Liberals. Still, a lot can happen in the one month of campaign that remains.

If the Liberals somehow do tank and make a historically poor showing on October 14, they really shouldn't blame Dion, who seems to be a rather decent, intelligent politician. Rather, for a number of reasons, they can place the blame squarely on this fellow.

Photo: The House of Commons (facing the government side)

A two-horse race and other pre-election myths

Today's Globe and Mail pretty much stole the headline I was planning for a blog post: Harper Tories On The Brink Of Majority. This might come as a shock to some pundits who keep looking to tied polling numbers as the be all-end all source of election analysis, so let's bust a few pre-election myths.


Myth: Harper's calling an election, but even he doesn't think he'll get a majority

Reality: The Canadian public are majority-wary and the Tories know this, so of course they're going to downplay their chances. Even if some polls show them hovering somewhere between 32% and 35%, that's only a few points short of majority territory, and they're extraordinarily well-organized and flush with cash. While they sure wouldn't mind a stronger minority and sticking it to the Liberals, as Tom Flanagan suggests, make no mistake -- they're gunning for a majority government and they just might get it.


Myth: The Liberals are neck-and-neck with the Tories and have a decent shot at winning

Reality: Party leaders rarely make gains in their first election campaign, and the odds are even worse for a leader going into the campaign with baggage in the form of a poor image, an unpopular campaign plank, fundraising challenges (now that the days of handouts from corporate Canada are gone), and close to a quarter of the caucus opting not to run again. Those who think the Liberals are in the game to win might want to ask why the party has done absolutely all it could in the last year to avoid an election.


Myth: The NDP is losing ground to the Greens

Reality: Most polls show the NDP holding all or nearly all of its 2006 levels of support and, while the Greens are still up a little over their 2006 levels, most of this added support is in Liberal-friendly suburban Ontario (though even that may vanish as the Liberals continue their fine tradition of "borrowing" the policy planks of other parties).

The NDP hopes to build on its 2006 support with a now-seasoned and well-recognized leader (no campaign gaffes as in 2004), the best-financed and most competitve campaign in the history of the party, a surprising number of "star" candidates who have emerged to run for the party in non-traditional areas, and Liberal slippage to the right (Tory success tends to throw NDP-Liberal battles to the NDP). This should produce new victories in Montreal and Gatineau, northern ridings, industrial Ontario (especially in the wake of news like this), and pockets of support in the West.


Myth: Winning or not, the Greens are more principled than the other parties

Reality: Desperate to do anything to meet the one MP threshold to join the leader's debates, the Greens recently welcomed into their ranks an MP who was kicked out of the Liberal Party for spending irregularities. With their hug-a-Liberal strategy backfiring as the Liberals steal their carbon tax plank, expect the Greens to make a lot of noise and gain a few points in the popular vote, but wind up with a big donut for seats.

A very rough early prediction:

Cons ~152
Libs ~85
NDP ~39
Bloc ~32

Image: Thomas Kelly, "The False Start," 1858. Hand-colored lithograph depicting Jerome Park Racetrack, New York City.

May's Greens: rising tide?

Globe columnist Lawrence Martin's latest piece on Elizabeth May and the federal Green Party was quite interesting. As many know, May is fighting to participate in the leader's debate and hoping to knock off Peter MacKay and win the first seat for her party. It won't be an easy task, but the Greens are feeling boosted by recent polls showing her party as high as 13% nationally and as high as 17% in Toronto's "guilt-ridden" 905 belt.

The big question is whether May can hold on to her poll numbers and translate them into votes at election time. It's likely that the Greens will be far outspent and outorganized by the three national parties, all of whom will be spending the maximum amount, and likely the Bloc too. Electoral history is filled with stories of overly optimistic parties driven by buoyant but ultimately ephemeral support levels.

A lot of folks assume that if the Greens do gain support that it'll be at the expense of Layton's NDP. According to the Martin article, some Greens even talk about merging with the NDP to create a new GDP (apparently that's short for "Green Democratic Party" and not "Gross Domestic Product"). However, Green gain at NDP expense isn't entirely certain. If it were, how might we explain the fact that the GP's greatest strength, when looking at all 500,000+ sized urban areas, lies in Calgary (9% in 2006, on average) and the 905 belt (17%, according to some poll numbers). These are hardly traditional areas of support for the NDP, which, at 10%, came in barely ahead of the Greens in Calgary and, outside of Oshawa, Hamilton and the Niagara region, struggles for votes in the 905 area that surrounds Toronto. Meanwhile, the NDP's two strongest cities, Vancouver (27% in 2006) and Winnipeg (28%) are actually two of the GP's weakest (5% and 4%, respectively).

My hypothesis right now is that the Greens are emerging as a or perhaps even the protest party of choice in regions where the NDP is relatively absent. Apart from a few BC ridings, wherever the NDP has a strong, well-managed campaign, the Green vote tends to be a non-factor, staying in the 2% to 6% range.

For the Greens, it certainly doesn't hurt that their message is more palatable for some suburban voters who feel a need to support a platform they see being ecologically-conscious, but who may be uncomfortable with the NDP’s traditionally pro-labour, redistributive policies (which the Greens tend either not to share or to keep awfully quiet about). If that's the case, the Greens may well be usurping more Liberal vote than NDP. Is that the reason behind the Dion/May hug-a-Green/hug-a-Liberal strategy? It's unlikely that, over the long run, they're both going to emerge victors from their quasi-alliance.

The Internet, being the ever-glorious provider of election study and polling numbers that it is, has given me quite a bit of interesting data to play with. That's one source of the tables I have above, which are simply summed riding-by-riding totals for each region. I've also found that the 2006 Canadian Election Study data files are freely available; that study consisted of interviews with thousands of Canadians before and after the election to gauge such things as party momentum, preferred second choices, and reactions to party platforms, campaign announcements and party leaders. In the lead up to the next federal election, I hope to share of the interesting findings from this data.

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At least one fellow Manitoba blogger, upon noticing my recent profile change (which states I've been a blogger since only January of this year), has concluded that my entire 2007 blogging history must have been written and posted all this month. It sort of conjures up the image of some wretched, hunched-over character in a dark, grungy basement cackling madly in between fits of wild typing to produce mass amounts of blog content (if only I was that prolific...). No harm done, but lest others make the same assumption, I thought I'd make it known that I merely changed the Gmail account I associate with the blog to a new one. For those using a Gmail address with blogger.com, it's easily done, as the instructions here, here, and here all attest. Of course, given the new profile date that'll appear by your name, you should be prepared to have any and all past election predictions challenged! Don't say I didn't warn you...

Forward, not back

Image: Nellie McClung, 1873-1951. A feminist, politician, and social activist, Nellie McClung was instrumental in securing for women the right to vote and to run for public office in Manitoba. This occurred in 1916, making Manitoba the first province to enfranchise women.

It was fabulous to see in this week's election an increase in the proportion of women MLAs. Obviously, at 32%, we're a long ways yet from seeing something close to gender parity in the chamber. Nevertheless, progress is progress: Manitoba now has a higher proportion of women sitting in its assembly than does any provincial legislature in Canada or the House of Commons.

Interestingly, the parties all ran similar proportions of female candidates: 33% of the NDP's and Liberal Party's candidates and 30% of the PC Party's candidates were women. However, the NDP elected a caucus with the greatest proportion of women: 13 of 36 (36%), compared to 5 of 19 (26%) for the Tories and 0 of 2 (0%) for the Liberals. This might suggest that the NDP runs more women in winnable constituencies (as opposed to running women only as "sacrificial lamb" candidates).

Across Canada, assemblies in PEI, Ontario, and Quebec have the next greatest share of women, with around 25%. Our three northern territories have the poorest rate of representation by women with only 11% in each of their assemblies. In the House of Commons, 21% of MPs are female.

In the last federal election, the NDP had the best record both of running and electing female candidates: 35% of its candidates were women, compared to 30% for the Bloc, 26% for the Liberals, 23% for the Greens, and a dismal 12% for the Conservatives. Among elected MPs, 41% of the NDP caucus is female, compared to 33% for the Bloc, 21% for the Liberals, and 11% for the Conservatives.

A free tip for Harper's Conservatives: Still looking to shed that public perception of your party as comprising mainly angry old white guys? How about not running only angry old white guys as candidates.

Institutionally-speaking

Final results for the constituencies of Brandon West (the PC's Borotsik currently ahead by 56 votes) and River East (the PC's Mitchelson currently ahead by 50 votes) are still pending, as results for institutions have yet to be added. It's highly unlikely that these ballots will change the result, as there will probably be less than 50 to count for each race. However, recounts are likely in both constituencies.

What's going on in Morris, Manitoba?

The NDP candidate there finished with a little over 2,500 votes, or 33%. This is an astonishing result for the longtime die-hard Tory seat. In 2003, the NDP pulled 1,500 votes, or 23%.

Meanwhile, in Portage La Prairie, another smaller Manitoba city, the NDP's Kostuchuk came closer than in 2003, finishing only 400 votes behind Tory candidate Faurschou. And in Tuxedo and Charleswood, suburban Tory seats not at all targeted by the NDP, NDP numbers crept upward despite no visible NDP campaigns.

These results are a sign of a growing urban-rural voting cleavage, in which urban voters gravitate away from the Conservatives and rural voters gravitate to them. It's not a good trend for the Tories given that Manitoba's population is increasingly urbanized. In Winnipeg, the Tories only hold 4 of 31 seats, only 2 more than the struggling, nearly fringe-status Liberals.

Fort Rouge's closer race must've driven the voter turnout up considerably. Only 7,145 electors voted in 2003, compared to about 8,100 this time. Compared to 2003, the NDP and PC each lost 300 votes, while Liberal candidate Paul Hesse more than doubled the Liberals' 2003 total of 1,200 votes. His will be a name to watch in Manitoba politics.

Bordering on frantic

The next election campaign will be fought under different constituency boundaries. The Manitoba Boundaries Commission meets once every ten years to readjust the electoral boundaries based on changes in population. The Commission will next meet in 2008 to begin the lengthy process of readjusting constituency boundaries using 2006 census data.

My guess is that we'll see Winnipeg's share of seats rise from 31 to 32, with non-Winnipeg's share dropping from 26 to 25. In the city, I imagine we'll see one new seat in each of southeast and southwest Winnipeg, with one disappearing from the inner city somewhere. Outside Winnipeg, expect seats like Gimli, Selkirk, and Springfield to shrink in size due to population increases while northern and rural seats increase in size due to population decline.

These changes always set off debates over what constitutes adequate representation. Should remote populations in northern Manitoba, with huge geographies and transportation challenges, lose representation when their share of the population declines? Should rural Manitoba see their share decline as their population slips?

And when boundaries are finalized and a seat has vanished, incumbents are left to scrap over who gets to run where. It's sort of like an ugly game of musical chairs or, to be more current, a season of Survivor: Manitoba. In 1999, after one inner-city seat was eliminated, NDP incumbents had to battle over a reduced number of seats in which to run. Eventually, a deal was struck: Conrad Santos, whose downtown-area seat of Broadway was eliminated, would run in Becky Barrett's safe seat of Wellington, while Barrett would venture north and face off against Liberal Kevin Lamoureux in Inkster.

In other areas, incumbents can hand pick the safer of several of their old constituency's regions to run in. For example, in 1999, the old seat of Crescentwood was eliminated, with portions added to Fort Garry and the new seats of Lord Roberts and Fort Rouge. Crescentwood MLA Tim Sale opted to run in the safe seat of Fort Rouge rather than take his chances in the then-Tory area of Fort Garry while Osborne MLA Diane McGifford ran in Lord Roberts.

When the seat boundaries are finalized in 2008 or 2009, who will the inner-city NDP MLAs and the rural Tory MLAs vote off their respective islands when a seat is eliminated? Expect talk about "retirements" and jockeying for positions to start soon.

Meanwhile, Theresa Oswald in Seine River and Erin Selby in Southdale may have the luxury of seeing their two constituencies turn into three, with the option of cutting loose the most Tory of these theirs to make (and thereby making their own re-election much easier).

Four-peat? Five-peat? A Doer dozen?

I can't stress how devastating this loss must have been for the Tories, who despite pre-election forecasts, wound up worse off than before the election. They'll need to pick up a full ten seats next time in order to squeak in with a bare majority -- that's a swing of a magnitude rarely seen in Manitoba politics.

While the next election campaign will be fought under different constituency boundaries, it might be a fun exercise to take a look and see where Tory hopes could lie following from their 2007 rout.

Based on seat pluralities and voting tradition, La Verendrye (1,040), Kirkfield Park (1,133), and Southdale (1,278) are obvious targets. Let's say the Tories take back all of those: that would give us 33 NDP to 22 PC.

That leaves them with their next most likely option, which is to win against suburban incumbents who all won relatively easily this time: Riel (2,274), Seine River (2,497), Assiniboia (2,478), St. James (1,880), Fort Garry (2,180), Radisson (1,815), and St. Norbert (1,590). Those are not small pluralities to overcome, especially when you're trying to upset established incumbents. They'd need a strong urban-focused strategy, well-known candidates, lots of cash, and big campaign momentum to do it, but let's say they can take four of those back: 29 NDP to 26 PC.

If they do well, they may also have a chance at taking back bellweather riding Gimli (lost by 2,500 this time) and Liberal leader Jon Gerrard's seat of River Heights (2,413): 28 NDP to 28 PC.

To surpass the NDP, that leaves only traditional NDP seats in non-Winnipeg to win in: Dauphin-Roblin (950), Brandon East (1,086), Interlake (1,601), and Swan River (1,581). These seats have all been NDP for more than 20 years.

While four years can be a long time in politics, there's no question the Tories will again go into a campaign as underdogs. When the NDP surpasses the Saskatchewan NDP's four terms in a row, we'll start to wonder if we've become the social democratic counterpart to Alberta, an almost one-party state (the Tories have held power uninterrupted for over 35 years).

Triumphant!

There was no humble pie on my plate this morning, unlike after some past elections: I successfully predicted the result in 54 of Manitoba's 57 constituencies. I was wrong only in three cases:

• Southdale, a seat I thought I'd never live to see the Tories lose;


• La Verendrye, where I overestimated challenger Bob Stefaniuk's chances; and


• Brandon West, where it appears Rick Borotsik narrowly defeated the NDP's Scott Smith.

My best prediction was to say that the Tories would win Minnedosa by 1,000 votes. It appears they won by 1,001 votes.

My predictions fared a lot better than those of some other political bloggers out there, who predicted all manner of wacky and bizarre results, including an NDP minority government, Liberal gains in Fort Rouge and Wellington, and another NDP minority government.

Congrats goes out to Gary Doer and the rest of the NDP folks for their third majority in a row and record-tying 36 seats. Frankly, they ran a far better campaign and had better candidates than did the opposition.

The increased majority for the NDP was a hard blow for Tories, who only had their narrow win in Brandon West to staunch the flow of tears. When they're down, Tories often turn inward and oust their leader. McFadyen's toughest fight could be yet to come.

Election oracle, part 3: non-Winnipeg

Image: The Oracle of Amon at Oasis Siwa in Egypt. Said to have been visited by Alexander the Great in 331 B.C.

Here is my second series of seat-by-seat predictions, this one covering non-Winnipeg constituencies. For two very close "nail-biter" races, I'm reserving my prediction for the time being. These "nail-biters" will be called in my next post.

Stronghold seats

Again, I'm not going to talk about seats that are party strongholds. Here's a list of the wins I'm predicting right off the bat.

NDP strongholds (7): Flin Flon, Interlake, Rupertsland, Selkirk, Swan River, The Pas, Thompson

PC strongholds (10): Arthur-Virden, Carman, Emerson, Lakeside, Morris, Pembina, Springfield, Ste. Rose, Steinbach, Turtle Mountain

Brandon East and Brandon West

Some Tories are predicting that they'll win in both Brandon East with candidate Mike Waddell and Brandon West with former Mayor and ex-MP Rick Borotsik. Brandon West may be close, but Brandon East would be quite the upset victory for the Tories.

Brandon's longtime political tradition is to elect a New Democrat MLA in Brandon East and a Conservative MLA in Brandon West. The city comprised one traditionally Tory seat before 1969, when it was split into two constituencies. In that year, in which the province elected its first NDP government, New Democrat Len Evans took Brandon East, holding it until 1999, when he retired. Brandon West has voted NDP only in 1981, and then again in 1999 and 2003.

Since 1999, Brandon East has been held by the NDP's Drew Caldwell, while Brandon West has been held by the NDP's Scott Smith. On average, Brandon West is wealthier than Brandon East, which makes it a more natural Tory seat. Tories, in making claims that they can take Brandon East, like to say that it's more a traditional Len Evans seat than it is a traditional NDP seat.

Interestingly, in 2003, the once solid Tory seat of Brandon West became almost as strongly NDP as Brandon East. Smith pulled off a 61% to 35% victory, making that race almost as easily won as Caldwell's, which was a 62% to 33% victory. Chalk it up to hard work and to Smith's stature as a cabinet minister.

If any of the two Brandon seats goes Tory, it'll be Brandon West, with its Tory tradition and high-profile candidate Rick Borotsik. Some folks have pointed to polls showing the NDP's fortunes having dropped since 2003 outside of Winnipeg. If that's the case, the shift is probably less strong in urban Brandon than in rural seats like Minnedosa or Ste. Rose. Even in a worst-case scenario drop in support for the NDP in Brandon, longtime NDP seat Brandon East will be safe. Brandon West is probably also safe in this election, but I'm going to put that seat in the "nail-biter" category for now.

Brandon East prediction: NDP win
Brandon West prediction: "nail-biter"

Dauphin-Roblin

I've been watching this seat closely and, despite Dauphin's long association with New Democrat MLAs, it could be a very tight race. A lot of folks would be surprised that this could be the case, given that Dauphin has elected a Tory only once since 1969. Even in the painful NDP rout of 1988, Dauphin still went orange. However, today's Dauphin-Roblin isn't entirely yesterday's Dauphin.

In the last redistribution of electoral boundaries (just before 1999), the old Tory seat of Roblin-Russell was split in half, with the Roblin portion added to Dauphin. This created the new constituency of Dauphin-Roblin, which was much less traditionally NDP than the old seat of Dauphin. The next elections that followed saw NDP numbers go up throughout the province, so Dauphin-Roblin hardly seemed to be anything of a close race.

The 2003 numbers in the seat were 4,602 NDP to 2,979 PC, which is a good margin of 1,623 votes, though it's actually less than the NDP margins in more traditional non-Winnipeg Tory seats, like Brandon West (2,228) and Gimli (1,849). The closest NDP win outside of Winnipeg in number of votes was La Verendrye (1,571); at 1,623, Dauphin-Roblin was the second closest. If the NDP were to lose Gimli, Brandon West, and La Verendrye, it would likely lose Dauphin-Roblin too.

So the potential may be there for the Tories to win this seat. The question is whether the Tories have the organization, the candidate, and the momentum to actually pull it off. On these criteria, the Tories look to be 0 for 3. Unbelievably, the local Tory organization didn't even nominate a candidate until well into the election campaign. When they did, it was Roblin-area drug store manager Lloyd McKinney, hardly the sort of high-profile candidate you'd need to have to knock off a sitting Conservation Minister. Finally, it hardly needs to said that the Tories have had about as much momentum as a dead slug in this campaign.

My original intention was to put this seat in the election night "nail-biters" column, and it still might be closer than a lot of people expect. However, with the Tories seemingly unable to get their act together, I'm putting it in the NDP column.

Prediction: NDP win

Gimli

Gimli is a seat that's traditionally see-sawed between the two parties: Tory in the 60s, then NDP in '69 and '73, back to Tory in '77, then NDP in '81 and '86, then Tory from '88 until '03 when Peter Bjornson finally snatched it back for the NDP.

Interestingly, if you look at those years, you can't help but conclude that Gimli is a bellweather constituency that tends to elect an MLA on the government side of the chamber. In fact, 1999's election was the only one since 1941 that Gimli didn't elect a government-side MLA.

The Tories actually might have had some chance here if they were organized and pulled a big name candidate, but they aren't and they haven't, and Bjornson's competent and popular. Expect Gimli to continue to be represented by an MLA in the governing party.

Prediction: NDP win

La Verendrye

This constituency is a mix of largely NDP-supportive francophone communities in the west and largely PC-supportive non-francophone communities in the east. NDP efforts will focus on maximizing support and turnout in their strong areas, while Tory efforts will be to do the same in their strong areas.

In 1999, Ron Lemieux, who is now our Minister of Infrastructure and Transportation, narrowly defeated sitting Tory Ben Sveinson by 3,418 to 3,307 votes. By 2003, NDP support had increased and Lemieux took the seat by 3,881 NDP to 2,310 PC, which made it the tightest NDP win outside Winnipeg. With slippage in NDP support outside Winnipeg, the Tories have put this seat in their sights.

Lemieux's strengths include his profile as Minister and his strong support in the francophone communities of his riding. His weaknesses are the very flipside: being the Minister responsible for highways in an area of the province where many highways could use some work, and strong support for the Tories in the eastern half of the riding.

Lemieux's Tory opponent, Bob Stefaniuk, will do well in the Tory areas, and he's also very well-known in the francophone communites, having served as the Mayor of the RM of Ritchot since 1995. To add to the NDP's challenges, new developments in the area immediately surrounding Winnipeg are bringing in more voters who tend to favour the Tories. All of this makes Lemieux perhaps the NDP's most at-risk sitting MLA.

Prediction: "nail-biter"

Lac du Bonnet

This constituency was once a pretty strong NDP seat: the party took it in every election from 1969 to 1986. Since 1988, however, it's been Tory, first with Darren Praznik and now with Gerald Hawranik. Results for 2003 depict a close race in the constituency (51% PC to 45% NDP), though the race was actually less close than in 1999. Every indication is that the Tories will hold this seat in 2007.

Prediction: PC win

Minnedosa

Everyone remembers the drama here in 2003: Tory Leanne Rowat squeaked ahead of New Democrat Harvey Paterson by a mere 12 votes. In 2007, the re-match is on as both candidates are running again. I'd like to say it's going to be as close a race as last time but, with slipping NDP support outside Winnipeg and Rowat's new profile as the incumbent MLA, the Tories will likely win by 1,000 votes.

Prediction: PC win

Portage La Prairie

Portage La Prairie has a long history of not voting NDP. It's been Tory since 1977 and was a Liberal seat before that. However, things look to be slowly changing to the point that I think it will elect a New Democrat sometime within the next several provincial elections. Part of it has to do with the changing character of Canadian politics, namely the strengthening of an urban-rural voting cleavage.

It used to be that Tories could get elected in the cities, but that seems to be less and less the case both federally, where the Tories last year couldn't elect a single MP in any of Canada's three largest cities, and provincially, where the Tories last time barely hung on in the City of Winnipeg, with 6 seats to the NDP's 23. And, as we know, the NDP generally has a tough time in rural areas: where they once elected an MLA in Emerson, they now can only dream of surpassing 20%. Portage La Prairie, Manitoba's fourth largest city with close to 13,000 people, is starting to join the urban non-Tory bandwagon.

In 2003, the NDP came 501 votes away from winning, which was about 200 votes closer than in 1999. If the NDP goes upward in any non-Winnipeg seat, this may be the one. Running for the party against the Tories' David Faurschou is popular local teacher James Kostuchuk. I predict the NDP won't manage to scoop this seat from the Tories, at least not this time, but I could be surprised on election night.

Prediction: PC win

Russell

Russell is another seat where the NDP actually fared worse in 2003 than in 1999, though this is likely because the Liberals couldn't even come up with a candidate in 1999. That year, the Tories won it with 53% to the NDP's 47%. In 2003, the Tories took it with 52% to the NDP's 41%. Len Derkach, who's been the Tory MLA there since 1986, will likely increase this margin once again.

Prediction: PC win

Summary

In 2003, of the 26 seats outside of Winnipeg, 12 were taken by the NDP and 14 were taken by the Tories. So far, I'm predicting 10 NDP, 14 PC, and 2 "nail-biters."

This brings my province-wide prediction to the following:

Winnipeg: 22 NDP, 5 PC, 1 Lib, 3 "nail-biters"

Non-Winnipeg: 10 NDP, 14 PC, 0 Lib, 2 "nail-biters"

Total: 32 NDP, 19 PC, 1 Lib, 5 "nail-biters"

The "nail-biters" I'll predict later this evening. They are Fort Garry, Inkster, Kirkfield Park, La Verendrye, and Brandon West. Four of these are NDP-PC races and one is an NDP-Liberal race, meaning that the NDP could win up to 36 on election night. At worst, they might end up with 32 seats, to 23 for the Tories and 2 for Liberals. Either way, another NDP majority looks certain at this point.

Election oracle, part 2: Winnipeg

Image: Temple of Apollo located on the slopes of Mount Parnassus near Delphi, Greece. The original location of the Delphic Oracle.

Here are the first of my seat-by-seat predictions for Tuesday's provincial election. This first series covers all Winnipeg constituencies. The next will cover non-Winnipeg constituencies, while my last series of predictions will cover any of the close "nail-biters" I've identified.

Winnipeg stronghold seats

I'm not going to spend time talking about seats that are party strongholds. It's a foregone conclusion that the NDP will dominate in the inner city, while the Tories will coast to victory in areas like Tuxedo. So, to make things short, here's a list of the "stronghold" wins I'm predicting right off the bat:

NDP strongholds (13): Burrows, Concordia, Elmwood, Kildonan, Lord Roberts, Minto, Point Douglas, Rossmere, St. Boniface, St. Johns, St. Vital, Transcona, Wolseley

PC strongholds (3): Charleswood, Fort Whyte, Tuxedo

Other seats are profiled in more detail below.

Southdale

From what I understand, Jack Reimer is a decent MLA and a super-nice guy. Apparently, he was well-respected in the 90s by members of both sides of the house. A couple of Southdale people I know have sung his praises.

While this doesn't have much to do with the current race in Southdale, I think Reimer's biggest shortcoming stems from his myopic tenure as Urban Affairs Minister in the Filmon government. The department was completely unable to accept what I'd consider to be basic urban planning tenets regarding growth, sprawl, transportation, and inner-city development. Beholden to the big developers and sprawl-friendly RMs, the department stalled in the face of public demands for a capital region planning vision by creating the Capital Region Review, an exercise with a whole lot of dialogue but structurally designed to provide very little value in way of planning recommendations. The NDP hasn't exactly been great in articulating its vision for the capital region, but at least there's some understanding of the issues as well as progress in areas like water stewardship.

In this race, Erin Selby seems like a great, dynamic candidate and I hope she wins. Unfortunately, I think Southdale is far too conservative a constituency for the NDP to pull it off. The NDP's fortunes will certainly rise there (over the 36% they won in 2003) as a result of her high profile and the weight of the party's organizational machine, but I'll be the most shocked of all if the NDP actually wins.

Prediction: 'A' for NDP effort, but a PC win.

Assiniboia

I think Jim Rondeau must be the hardest working MLA in the province. It's certainly paid off: his margin of 3 votes in 1999 turned into a margin of close to 3,000 in 2003. That's a steep hill to climb for former city council candidate Kelly DeGroot, the Tories' candidate there.

I happened to sit with Ms. DeGroot at a Chamber of Commerce luncheon once and chatted with her for a bit. Moderate, intelligent, articulate and organized, she seems like a great catch for the Tories as a candidate. Nevertheless, there's no way she's going to be able to knock off Rondeau in this election.

Prediction: NDP win

Seine River

After Fort Garry, this was the NDP's narrowest victory in Winnipeg in 2003: about 700 votes or 9% of the electorate separated the NDP from the Conservatives. If anyone else other than Theresa Oswald were the NDP candidate, I'd expect a close race. But Ms. Oswald, the current Minister of Health and a swiftly rising star in the party, is the candidate. Expect her to win with an increased level of support.

Prediction: NDP win

Fort Garry

Fort Garry was the closest race in Winnipeg in 2003, with less than 100 votes separating winner Kerri Irvin-Ross of the NDP and defeated incumbent Joy Smith of the PCs. Given that Winnipeg voting intentions are somewhere around the same place as in the 2003 election, this is likely to be another very close race (for the third election in a row).

Prediction: "nail-biter"

St. James

With a 54% to 33% victory over her Tory challenger in 2003, the NDP's Bonnie Korzeniowski will not likely have a hard time being re-elected.

Prediction: NDP win

The Maples

Preceding this election campaign and the last, there have been ugly battles for the NDP nomination in The Maples. When the dust finally settled after the most recent and controversy-laden race, candidate Mohinder Saran had defeated sitting MLA Chris Aglugub to stand as the NDP candidate in the provincial election. Saran is one of the candidates who had nothing to do with any of the controversy and he inherits a pretty strong constituency for the NDP: in 2003, the party took 68% of the vote, to 16% for each of the Conservatives and Liberals.

Prediction: NDP win

Riel

There's a lot of talk in Tory camps about how they're planning to take this seat with former West End BIZ President Trudy Turner, who also gave City Councillor Harvey Smith a tough run for his money in last fall's municipal campaign. Based on a rough glance at the campaign signs that are up throughout the constituency, Ms. Turner's inner-city credentials are selling well in the poshest riverfront properties near St. Vital Park, but not as well in the rest of the constituency.

Of course, it's an old cliché that signs don't vote. The real problem with Tory hopes is that, based on the numbers, Riel is now a stronger NDP constituency than is Seine River, St. Norbert, Fort Garry, or Radisson. Chances are that Riel will go Tory only after those other seats do, and that doesn't appear likely. Of course, Tories are hoping for some sort of localized groundswell of protest to defeat the incumbent, Christine Melnick, but that would require a protest sufficient to close a 1,300 vote gap. Pretty unlikely.

Prediction: NDP win

Wellington

I've already talked about Wellington in earlier posts. When your 2003 base is 74% and your closest competitor was at 15%, vote-splitting isn't much of a concern. Expect NDP candidate Flor Marcelino to win easily.

Prediction: NDP

St. Norbert

The third closest NDP win in Winnipeg, this seat will be watched on election night. Current MLA Marilyn Brick ran here in 1999, but fell short of defeating Tory Marcel Laurendeau by about 700 votes. In 2003, she turned the tables, winning by 700 votes. It probably didn't help the Tories any that their sitting MLA had to be rescued from the trunk of his car after being put there by an unscrupulous associate. Talk about low points in one's political career!

As long as the NDP are polling the Winnipeg numbers they are, they should be able to hold on to south Winnipeg seats like this one. As a rule, Ms. Brick is staying away from her trunk.

Prediction: NDP win

River East

This seat represents the narrowest Tory win in Winnipeg in 2003. Longtime incumbent Bonnie Mitchelson hung on by 500 votes, which was a little closer than her 1999 victory of 700 votes. Electoral historians might note the NDP's 1981 victory in this seat -- its only win here ever -- but its then-boundaries included much of what is now Rossmere.

Given the lack of profile this race has had during the campaign, I suspect there's little hope of the NDP stealing it from the PCs. I fully expect Mitchelson to increase her margin of victory to something a little more comfortable.

Prediction: PC win

Fort Rouge

I'm actually talking about Fort Rouge (instead of simply chalking it up as an NDP stronghold) only to shatter Liberal pipe dreams about actually taking the seat. Liberals contend that with youthful candidate Paul Hesse, the lack of an incumbent MLA (Tim Sale, the former MLA for Fort Rouge isn't running again), and door-to-door canvassing challenges for NDP candidate Jennifer Howard, they have a shot at winning. They don't. Even if they were to double the 17% they were able to get in 2003, they'd still end up short.

Prediction: NDP win

Inkster

The Liberals' Kevin Lamoureux is quite a character, being known for his bizarre antics in the Legislature. He's represented the Inkster constituency in every election since 1988, with the exception of the 1999 to 2003 period, after he lost to the NDP's Becky Barrett.

The NDP are once again challenging, this time running impressive candidate Romy Magsino. My initial thoughts are that Lamoureux will hold on to this seat, but then again he did benefit in 2003 from the collapse of the local PC vote from 13% to 4% (while the Liberal vote climbed from 43% to 53%). A little bit of a Tory revival could steal those votes back from Lamoureux, putting him in a very close race against the NDP's Magsino. This one will be tight.

Prediction: "nail-biter"

River Heights

Jon Gerrard, leader of the Manitoba Liberal Party, is the MLA for River Heights. Of any area of the province, River Heights seems the most suited to voting Liberal. Made up of professional, well-educated, and upper middle class families, voters here are probably too well off to be entirely comfortable with the left-leaning character of the NDP, but yet too educated and cultured to have any affinity for the simplistic, sometimes angry, hard right ideology often voiced by Tories (including their current candidate). That leaves just enough room for Manitoba's highest-profile Liberal to run up the middle and eke out victory after victory.

Of course, Gerrard's victory isn't entirely in the bag. The Tories have won this seat before, most recently in 1995, and could do so again. In 1999, Gerrard took 45% of the vote to defeat incumbent Mike Radcliffe, who garnered 41%. In 2003, Gerrard won with 49% of the vote, compared to just 29% for the PCs and 20% for the NDP. Given that recent polls put Conservative support at around their 2003 level, they'll need to pull up their socks a little before mounting a more serious challenge for this seat.

Prediction: Liberal win

Kirkfield Park

The phrase "pulling a Kirkfield Park" might just become a new word in our political lexicon. I can just imagine picking up a copy of the next edition of the Canadian Oxford Dictionary and finding the following among the new words the editors decided to include:

Kirkfield Park n. 1. a provincial constituency, first created in 1981, whose members elect a representative to the Manitoba legislature. 2. the act of an elected representative, especially a member of the Manitoba PC party, resigning part-way through the term they were elected to serve to the detriment of their party's political fortunes (after former MLAs Eric Stefanson and Stuart Murray, who resigned as representatives of Kirkfield Park before their terms were complete).

For a constituency that's never elected anyone but a Tory, it's surprising to see two Tory MLAs in a row resign, leaving the seat as vulnerable as it is to an NDP pick-up. And given that Kirkfield Park remains a Tory island in a sea of orange, I would have expected to see a heated nomination race between several high-profile candidates for the Tories. Not so, which is another bad omen for the PC's chances of governing in the near future.

Kirkfield Park remains highly vulnerable to the NDP. You wouldn't think so, based only on the 2003 results, when the PCs grabbed 47% to the NDP's 31%, and the Liberals' 22%. Of course, that was when PC leader Stu Murray held the seat. The advantage in terms of media exposure and organization that comes from being a party leader is immense and, barring some protest that seeks to make that leader a lightning rod for voter grievances, a party leader is hard to defeat. It's a lot of the reason that Jon Gerrard is able to win in River Heights.

What if, in 2003, the Tory candidate hadn't been Stu Murray? You can bet that the race would have been a lot closer. Add to that a great NDP candidate and an NDP machine that's working the riding hard, unlike in 2003, and you have yourself a battle. This will be one race to watch on election night.

Prediction: "nail-biter"

Radisson

I was originally going to call Radisson a "nail-biter," given the rising tide of PC vote in the area in the last ten or so years. A bizarre blend of Transcona, East Kildonan, St. Boniface, and Windsor Park, it is a traditional NDP seat.

In 2003, the NDP's Bidhu Jha beat the Tories' Linda West by 52% to 39%. That's a lot closer than in 1999 when the result was 55% to 33%, which is in turn closer than in 1995 when the result was 52% to 22%. The Tories are starting to think they're going to take the seat, and they just might do so one of these days.

Given that NDP and Tory support in the city is at about the same level as in 2003, the Tory tide still has to rise by a fair bit to put them over the top in Radisson. This is especially true now that Jha has the benefit of incumbency and voter recognition that he did not have in 2003. While voters here still have the potential to surprise on election night, my sense is that the outcome will look something like Gary Doer's recent joke, which paraphrases the party's 2003 slogan: "Much accomplished, more Bidhu."

Prediction: NDP win

Winnipeg prediction summary

In 2003, of 31 seats, the NDP took 23 seats, to 6 for the PCs, and 2 for the Liberals.

My 2007 prediction so far shows little change: 22 NDP, 5 PC, 1 Liberal, and 3 "nail-biters" (Fort Garry, Inkster, Kirkfield Park), which I'll call after I profile the non-Winnipeg seats.