Wednesday, May 23, 2007


There was no humble pie on my plate this morning, unlike after some past elections: I successfully predicted the result in 54 of Manitoba's 57 constituencies. I was wrong only in three cases:

  • Southdale, a seat I thought I'd never live to see the Tories lose;

  • La Verendrye, where I overestimated challenger Bob Stefaniuk's chances; and

  • Brandon West, where it appears Rick Borotsik narrowly defeated the NDP's Scott Smith.

My best prediction was to say that the Tories would win Minnedosa by 1,000 votes. It appears they won by 1,001 votes.

My predictions fared a lot better than those of some other political bloggers out there, who predicted all manner of wacky and bizarre results, including an NDP minority government, Liberal gains in Fort Rouge and Wellington, and another NDP minority government.

Congrats goes out to Gary Doer and the rest of the NDP folks for their third majority in a row and record-tying 36 seats. Frankly, they ran a far better campaign and had better candidates than did the opposition.

The increased majority for the NDP was a hard blow for Tories, who only had their narrow win in Brandon West to staunch the flow of tears. When they're down, Tories often turn inward and oust their leader. McFadyen's toughest fight could be yet to come.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I hope they leave Hugh alone, so we can win next time ! He is such a horrible choice for leader. What were the tories thinking when they elected a dud ?