Monday, October 13, 2008

Election Oracle 2008: MB and SK

Here are the first of my regional predictions. Others will follow shortly.

In Manitoba, expect the Conservatives to hold all their seats, plus pick up St. Boniface from the Liberals, who won it by only 1,500 votes in the last election. The Liberals are also likely to lose Churchill to NDP candidate Niki Ashton, leaving them with just one seat of the 14 in Manitoba.

2006 result: Con 8, Lib 3, NDP 3
2008 prediction: Con 9, Lib 1, NDP 4

I also predict few changes for neighbouring Saskatchewan. There’s been a lot of talk about Liberal Ralph Goodale facing a tough challenge from the Conservatives. Others have suggested that Conservatives Tom Lukiwski and Andrew Scheer might be in tough fights with the NDP. Still others point to newly elected Tory MP Robert Clarke struggling to fend off Liberal David Orchard. I expect all these MPs to be re-elected.

Where the races are interesting are in two seats in which incumbents are not running for re-election: Palliser and Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar. Both seats feature close races between the Conservatives and the NDP. I think former Moose Jaw Mayor Ray Boughen will take Palliser for the Conservatives, while the NDP’s Nettie Wiebe will prevail in Saskatoon.

2006 result: Con 12, Lib 2, NDP 0
2008 prediction: Con 12, Lib 1, NDP 1

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