It's a four-peat (54 out of 57 ain't bad)

Looks like I was right in 54 of 57 constituencies in my Manitoba election prediction. I was wrong in thinking the NDP's rural vote would slide enough for them to lose Dauphin and Dawson Trail. In the end, they held on against strong Tory challenges in those seats. I was also wrong about St. Norbert, where new NDP candidate Dave Gaudreau managed to narrowly hold the seat for the party by around 150 votes.

The end result is 37 NDP to 19 PC and 1 Liberal rather than the 34 to 22 to 1 I had predicted. I thought the Conservatives would beat the NDP in popular vote, but the NDP still won 46% to 44%. That means an unprecedented fourth majority government and seat count, at least in modern Manitoba political history, and a stunning win for Selinger who entered his first campaign as party leader.

Election Oracle, Manitoba edition

After the mediocre prediction posted in last spring’s federal election, you think Prairie Topiary would have the good sense not to come out of retirement once again to make an election prediction. Alas, old habits die hard.

This is my forecast for this Tuesday’s provincial election: 34 NDP, 22 PC and 1 Liberal. Yes, so that means an unprecedented fourth majority for Manitoba’s NDP and a first for Premier Greg Selinger, a slightly larger and stronger PC opposition under Hugh McFadyen, and Liberal survival as Jon Gerrard clings to perhaps the last bastion of Liberal support in his River Heights seat.

Expect the NDP to win a comfortable majority of seats but lose the popular vote to the Tories who tend to pile up massive wins in rural areas yet fall just short of victory in most of Winnipeg suburbia.

Throughout the campaign, the media has kept its focus on the battles in Winnipeg, which holds 31 of the province’s 57 seats and the bulk of NDP holds that the Tories have to win to form government. I think, however, that the races outside of Winnipeg are just as interesting, so let’s start there.

South-western Manitoba

In southwest Manitoba, which has eight seats, expect the Tories to win solid victories in Arthur-Virden, Spruce Woods, Agassiz and Riding Mountain. I’m expecting previously NDP-held Dauphin and Swan River to be close. Though incumbent and Finance Minister Rosann Wowchuk is not running again, I expect the NDP to retain their Swan River Riding. In Dauphin, the battle is much tighter given riding redistribution, which reduces the NDP’s 2007 lead to 900 votes. I predict Tory candidate Lloyd McKinney will score an upset victory here over the NDP’s Stan Struthers, taking the seat for the Tories for the first time since 1977.

Brandon’s two seats are also battlegrounds. Brandon East has been held by the NDP since 1969, though the party’s wins have been slimmer in recent years. Brandon West, though traditionally Conservative, went NDP in 1999 and 2003 before Rick Borotsik took it back for the Tories in 2007. Both races could go either way in this election, though I predict an NDP hold in East and a Conservative hold in West.

SW MB tally: 2 NDP, 6 PC

South-eastern Manitoba

This region has 14 seats, most of which elect Conservatives. The NDP is hoping to hold its seats in Interlake, Gimli, Selkirk, and Dawson Trail, with Tory challengers strongest in Interlake and Dawson Trail. I predict defeat for Ron Lemieux in Dawson Trail against Tory Laurent Tetrault but NDP holds in the other three, with Interlake the narrowest of these. I may not be right – in 2007, I wrongly predicted defeat for Lemieux.

The only other seat worth watching is Portage la Prairie, which has never elected a New Democrat MLA, a goal the NDP has nevertheless been coming closer and closer to achieving in recent years. With redistribution, the 2007 Tory margin is only 400 votes and their incumbent is not running again while the NDP’s James Kostuchuk is. I’m not predicting it, but this may be one of the few places the NDP can make gains despite slippage in their vote elsewhere. Expect easy Tory wins elsewhere in this region.

SE MB tally: 3 NDP, 11 PC

Northern Manitoba

I don’t see any surprises here. Provincially, the NDP has long ruled northern Manitoba and should take all four seats again in this election.

Northern MB tally: 4 NDP

Winnipeg

Let’s get the strongholds and easy wins out of the way. The Conservatives will easily win Charleswood, Tuxedo and McFadyen’s seat of Fort Whyte (3 seats). Expect easy NDP wins in Wolseley, Minto, Logan, Point Douglas, St. Johns, Burrows, Elmwood, Concordia, Kildonan, The Maples, Transcona and Greg Selinger’s seat of St. Boniface (12 seats). And though the Tories may be eyeing the following seats (as they should), they’ll also remain safe for the NDP in this election: Assiniboia, St. James, Rossmere, Radisson, St. Vital, Fort Garry-Riverview and Fort Richmond (7 seats). That leaves nine Winnipeg battlegrounds to consider.

Kirkfield Park and Southdale: In 2007, these were the site of shocking NDP gains in Tory heartland. While the Conservatives are putting up stronger campaigns in this election, the organizational resources of the NDP combined with the incumbency factor of the MLAs likely mean NDP holds. Either way, these will be close races.

Tyndall Park and Fort Rouge: These represent the only true Liberal-NDP battles in the city. As Inkster in 2007, most of what is now Tyndall Park was strongly Liberal. Redistributed results, however, put the Liberals only 400 votes ahead in this seat and, without now-MP Kevin Lamoureux as their candidate, the Liberals will almost certainly see the seat return to the NDP fold. Liberal Paul Hesse is putting up a strong campaign in Fort Rouge against the NDP’s Jennifer Howard and it’s their only chance – albeit a long shot – of actually gaining a seat in this election. With Liberal vote fizzling in this election, I predict an NDP hold.

River Heights: Liberal leader Jon Gerrard is fighting to hold his own seat against Marty Morantz of the Conservatives. With redistribution, he would have won 4,448 to 2,407 votes in 2007, which is still an impressive margin of victory. Despite the Liberals’ plunge in the polls, I think the good doctor can eke out a victory here. This seat was traditionally Conservative until Sharon Carstairs took it in 1986 and they have struggled to win it since, succeeding only in 1995.

Riel, Seine River and St. Norbert: These three NDP seats in southern Winnipeg are being strongly targeted by the Conservatives. Under redistribution, the NDP would have won them last time by 2,200, 2,100 and 500 votes, respectively. With a close margin of victory and no incumbent running for the NDP, St. Norbert is ripe for Tory picking and I think they’ll do it. My gut tells me the margin of victory is too much for the Tories to overcome in the other two seats, though, even for popular former City Councillor Gord Steeves, who hopes to knock off Health Minister Theresa Oswald in Seine River.

River East: Conservative Bonnie Mitchelson barely held on to this seat in 2007, in what was a surprisingly strong result for the NDP. Under the redistributed boundaries, the NDP would have actually won the seat by 70 votes instead of losing it by 52 votes. I think the NDP’s numbers will drop here, like in most areas of the province, so that the Conservatives hold the seat.

Winnipeg tally: 25 NDP, 5 PC, 1 Liberal

Final thoughts

Of the 16 close races I’ve identified throughout Manitoba, I predict NDP wins in 9 (Swan River, Brandon East, Interlake, Kirkfield, Southdale, Tyndall, Fort Rouge, Riel, and Seine River), Conservative wins in 6 (Brandon West, Dauphin, Dawson Trail, Portage, St. Norbert, and River East) and a Liberal win in River Heights. Whether I’m right or wrong will come with Tuesday night’s news.

If I am right, the NDP will be jubilant even if stung by a few of their losses, Conservatives will devastated even if in a stronger position to win in 2015 (with a similar seat count to the NDP’s before they took power in 1999), and the Liberals will be relieved to be alive even with the soul searching that undoubtedly lies ahead for them.

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Photo: A ballot from Afghanistan’s 2006 legislative elections. Large numbers of Manitoba voters will hopefully exercise their own right to vote on October 4.

Election Oracle: 2011

It’s been about a year and a half since I’ve made any posts on this blog. Life has made it hard to keep up with the writing and there’s a good community of Manitoba bloggers that keep the ideas flowing and the debates going. While I’m not sure if I’ll bring this blog back to life at some point, I’m happy for now to use it for my election predictions. Usually, I come in a bit closer than just about anyone, but we’ll see if that holds true for this time, especially when the last polls of the campaign are still showing increased movement toward the NDP.

Canada

Last election (incl byelections): C 145, N 36, L 77, B 49, I1
Prediction: C 152, N 84, L 51, B 20, I 1

They key question from the start of the campaign was whether the Conservatives would get a minority or majority. The second that emerged was whether the NDP will form the Official Opposition. I’m predicting 152 Conservatives, which is a small increase and within a few seats of a majority. If I’m wrong and they pick up a few extra Liberal seats in Ontario, then they may eke out a slight majority. The NDP will be solidly in second place, even if their organization can’t convert all of their support into hard votes. The last few polls of the campaign have showed the NDP numbers still increasing, but I’ve tried to offer fairly conservative predictions.

If my prediction is right, it’ll be a tepid win for the Conservatives – they’ll have yet another minority, leaving them unable to push their agenda through Parliament, but it’ll be a strong minority, which means they’ll be too strong to be pushed aside by an opposition coalition. It’s a historic rout for the Liberals and one from which they may never recover, if a British-style left-right realignment is the outcome. It’s also a crushing defeat for the Bloc in Quebec, which has dominated since their formation in the early 1990s. Now they’re more of a chip than a block. For the NDP, it’s an astonishing result and an endorsement of Jack Layton’s style and direction.

So what lies ahead? For the Conservatives, they’ll continue in a minority government and continue strategizing about how to hold back the NDP from further growth. I can only hope that the Conservatives see this election as a sign that Canadians prefer vision and substance over dirty tricks and character assassinations, but that might be too much to hope for. It may get worse yet.

For the NDP, as Official Opposition, the task ahead will be one of discipline, coalition building (informal rather than formal) and developing an image, platform and strategy for forming government. All parties go through some growing pains as they transition from a protest party into a governing party and the federal NDP won’t be any different. As well, with Liberals, Bloquistes and Greens all migrating to the NDP, the party may no longer be interested in a formal merger or coalition deal. The new NDP is the coalition.

For the Liberals and Bloc, regrouping will be tough. Right-wing Liberals may gravitate to the Conservatives in the hopes of stopping further NDP growth. Left-wing Liberals who’ve flirted with the NDP but saw them as having no chance of forming government will now feel the pressure to move to the NDP. With the Liberals in third place, potential candidates, leaders and donors will now all be much harder to come by. For their part, Bloc members may wonder what point there is in sticking around. More socially conservative nationalists may drift to the Conservatives while left-leaning ones will feel compelled to join many of their colleagues in supporting what is now the largest social democratic party in Quebec. The Bloc and Liberals will try to convince voters that this election was a blip or a one-off event, but clawing their way back isn’t going to be easy.

Atlantic

Last election: C 11, N 4, L 17
Prediction: C 14, N 7, L 11

Apart from several Conservative and NDP pickups, I expect the Atlantic to be mostly unchanged, even though some polls are pointing to a last-minute NDP surge here. I see Tory pickups in Avalon, Malpeque, Madawaska-Restigouche and Moncton and one loss to the NDP in Nova Scotia’s South Shore. Look also for NDP gains in St. John’s South and Dartmouth.

Possible surprises: Tory win in Random-Burin-St. George or NDP wins in Central Nova (Peter McKay) or Halifax West. Some pundits have suggested these, but I’m sceptical they’ll happen.

Quebec

Last election: C 10, N 1, L 14, B 49, I1
Prediction: C 8, N 36, L 10, B 20, I1

The story here is the catastrophic meltdown of the Bloc and the meteoric rise of the NDP. Many pundits are completely puzzled by the NDP’s strength, but the party’s been laying the groundwork for growth and seeing incremental results for years. Of course, the perfect storm of good fortune for the NDP in this election helped throw open the flood gates. I predict Duceppe will lose his own seat in Laurier-Ste-Marie, making the Bloc’s collapse even more stunning. Look for NDP gains throughout the Montreal/Laval, Gatineau and Quebec City regions.

While the Liberals will lose some seats to the NDP, including Westmount, NDG, Lasalle-Émard and Hull-Aylmer, the few good news stories of the night will come when they pick up Bloc seats (Ahuntsic, Haute-Gaspésie and possibly Brome-Missisquoi where Denis Paradis is running) as the NDP siphons away Bloc votes. The Tories will lose Beauport-Limoilou, Charlesbourg and Pontiac (Lawrence Cannon, one of my least favourite MPs) to the NDP, but should hold on to the rest. Unfortunately, independent Arthur André, known for working another job while being an MP and making intolerant comments on the radio, will probably eke out a victory over his Bloc and NDP competitors.

Possible surprises: Everywhere, as untouchable Bloc and Liberal strongholds fall. Watch for NDP star candidate and Innu leader Romeo Saganash in a close battle with the Bloc for his northern Quebec seat.

Ontario

Last election: C 52, N 17 , L 37
Prediction: C 60, N 22, L 24

With Quebec not interested in their party, the Tories needed Ontario to get their majority. It would have worked well if the NDP only cut into the Liberal vote, so as to toss Liberal-Conservative races to the Tories, but the NDP have pulled votes from the Tories too. I predict most new wins for the NDP in the Toronto area, including Beaches-East York, Davenport, Oshawa, Parkdale-High Park and and York South-Weston. I think they’ll also win Oshawa from the Cons.

The Liberals, squeezed from both sides, will probably lose around one third of their Ontario seats, including many in the 905 belt. The Holland-Alexander race has drawn a lot of attention in Ajax-Pickering. I predict a Tory win there as well as in Mississauga South, Brampton-Springdale and Brampton West. A few Toronto seats are likely to swing Tory as well (a first since the 1980s), giving them Don Valley West, Eglinton-Lawrence and York Centre.

Possible surprises: I expect Iggy will be safe in his own seat, but a surprise of the night could be the Tories giving him a run in his home seat. If the NDP really surprises, they may pick up Scarborough Southwest, Guelph, Essex, Kenora and others, but I expect they’ll fall a little short in these ridings.

Manitoba

Last election: C 9, N 3 , L 2
Prediction: C 9, N 4, L 1

I don’t expect the electoral drama that’s going on in most other provinces to really reach us here in Manitoba. The NDP should win Winnipeg North back from the Liberals in a close race, giving us the same result as in 2008.

Possible surprises: The Conservatives could surprise and win Winnipeg South-Centre from the Liberals or Elmwood-Transcona from the NDP, but I don’t think their numbers are quite high enough to do it.

Saskatchewan and Alberta

Last election: C 40, N 1 , L 1
Prediction: C 39, N 2, L 1

There is NDP momentum in our two neighbouring prairie provinces, but it’s probably not enough to make many seats change hands. NDP targets include Palliser, Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, Edmonton Centre and Edmonton East. Of these, I predict an NDP win in the Saskatoon seat with tighter races but not wins elsewhere.

Possible surprises: Conservative nomination loser James Ford is running again as an Independent in Edmonton--Sherwood Park and there’s an outside chance he could pull off an upset. The NDP might also surprise with a second seat in Alberta. On the other hand, it’ll be one of the few big letdowns of the night for New Democrats if they surge Canada-wide but end up shut out of Saskatchewan again.

British Columbia

Last election: C 22, N 9 , L 5
Prediction: C 21, N 12, L 3

The NDP has seen big upward movement in their poll numbers here as in most other provinces and it should gain them a few more seats. On election night, watch for them battling to pick up Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, Vancouver Island North and Surrey North from Tories, while the Tories fight close races to pick up Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca (vacated by Keith Martin) and Vancouver South (Ujjal Dosanjh).

The Greens are of course hoping for a win in Saanich-Gulf Islands, where Elizabeth May is running. It’s their one shot at a seat and I think they’ll fall well short, despite the poll they released claiming they’re in the lead.

Possible surprises: A stunning upset could come if Hedy Fry is defeated by the NDP in Vancouver Centre or if Elizabeth May somehow does pull off a win on Vancouver Island. A last minute NDP surge might also toss them some seats they haven’t won since 1988.

The North

Last election: C 1, N 1 , L 1
Prediction: C 1, N 1, L 1

Don’t forget about the north! I predict one seat apiece for each of the three parties – same as last time. The NDP in the Western Arctic (NWT) and the Conservative in Nunavut each stave off a former Territorial Premier running as the Liberal candidate.

Photo: John William Waterhouse's Consulting the Oracle, 1882.

Prairie Topiary out-predicts other pundits!

Time for some gloating: I predicted the correct result in 287 out of 308 seats, for a 93% success rate. That's down from my 95% success rate in last year's provincial election, but it beats out Democratic Space's 92% (282 correct) and Election Prediction Project's 91% (281). My totals were also much closer than theirs -- you'd need to switch the result in only seven seats to match my predicted totals. It seems that just about everyone, including the rational investors putting their money down at the UBC election stock market, thought the Tories would do worse and the Liberals better than I did.

Final result: CON 143, LIB 76, NDP 37, BQ 50, IND 2
PT's prediction: CON 137, LIB 80, NDP 40, BQ 49, IND 2

Curtis Brown also did very well in his predictions, beating out most other pundits; his were CON 137, LIB 86, Bloc 49, NDP 37 and Ind 2. He'd have to change the result in just 10 seats to be dead on.

Bart the fish (aka Warren Kinsella), whose prediction was 135 CON, 75 LIB, 50 Bloc, 40 NDP and "some Green stuff" was also quite close.

What now?

For the Liberals, the question will be whether Dion can hang on. I doubt he will. And that leaves Bob Rae as the frontrunner for a job that will involve a lot of party rebuilding.

For the NDP, it's onward. Though last night's seat count is their second-best result in history, there were certainly many disappointments, especially the loss of MPs Catherine Bell and Peggy Nash, being shut out of Saskatchewan for the third time and not winning more than one seat in Quebec. Those are balanced with proud wins in Alberta and Newfoundland and the near-sweep of northern Ontario.

For the Bloc, they've made it clear they're still a force to be reckoned with, but now will face continued questions of their purpose in Ottawa and whether Duceppe will continue to stick around.

For Harper, he can govern with a little bit more of a comfort level, but with opposition control of the committees in particular, the next Parliament may be as frustrating as the last. We may well be back at this in a year or two.

For me, I have a flight to catch and a short, but thankfully election- and punditry-free holiday to enjoy.

Election Oracle 2008: wrap up

Prairie Topiary's predictions suggest the following result (with change since 2006 in parentheses):

Con 137 (+13)
Lib 80 (-23)
Bloc 49 (-2)
NDP 40 (+11)
Ind 2 (+1)
Green 0 (-)



I feel I’ve been fairly conservative in my predictions, usually siding with the incumbent in what I believe to be extremely close races. In particular, I’ve been fairly conservative in predicting NDP wins. Party supporters are often overzealous in predicting wins for their own party and I’d like to avoid falling into that trap. I obviously hope for higher numbers, and I won’t be terribly surprised if the party picks up ten more seats than I predicted tomorrow night. Tomorrow will tell all.

If these do turn out to be the results of tomorrow’s election, then we can expect every party to feel a mix of elation and disappointment. The Tories will be happy to have gained some extra seats, but disappointed for having failed to attain a majority. The Liberals will be relieved to see that the world didn’t end for their party, but disappointed to have lost so many seats. The NDP will be elated to see its caucus expand by 25%, but will wish they had gained more, perhaps even to surpass the Liberals or at least their best-ever seat count. The Bloc will be happy to see it hold Quebec, but will face tough questions about its purpose in the new House of Commons and after Gilles Duceppe’s departure (I’m betting he’ll step down before the next election). Finally, the Greens will be saddened to again be without any MPs in the House, but will see a silver lining in their increase in popular vote and important role in this campaign.

For comparison, here are the predictions of a few other pundits:

Democratic Space: Con 128, Lib 92, Bloc 52, NDP 34, Ind 2, Green 0

Election Prediction Project: Con 125, Lib 94, Bloc 51, NDP 36, Ind 2, Green 0

Nixtuff: Con 124, Lib 88, Bloc 51, NDP 42, Ind 2, Green 1

Paulitics: Con 131-133, Lib 80-81, Bloc 55, NDP 38-40, Ind 1-2, Green 0

Trendlines: Con 132, Lib 84, Bloc 52, NDP 39, Ind 1, Green 0

UBC Election Stock Market (rounded): Con 129, Lib 88, Bloc 48, NDP 40, Other 2

Sovereignty en Anglais: Con 123, Lib 94, Bloc 55, NDP 34, Ind 2, Green 0

EKOS (Oct. 10) : Con 152, Lib 60, Bloc 57, NDP 39, Other 0

LISPOP: Con 135, Lib 87, Bloc 51, NDP 33, Ind 2, Green 0

Hill & Knowlton: Con 124, Lib 86, Bloc 56, NDP 42, Ind 0, Green 0

Vote for Environment projection: Con 131, Lib 85, Bloc 52, NDP 38, Other 2

Interestingly, compared to these, my results are high for the Conservatives and NDP and low for the Liberals and Bloc. Feel free to post other predictions in my comments section.

Photo: John William Waterhouse - The Crystal Ball (1902, oil on canvas)

Election Oracle 2008: BC and the North

British Columbia is a true three-way race. Polls have showed buoyant Conservative numbers here. The Liberals, which many polls showed in fourth place in mid-campaign, have recovered somewhat, while the NDP, traditionally very strong in BC, are likely down in some parts of the province and up elsewhere.

Greater Vancouver/Lower Mainland

In greater Vancouver and the lower mainland, there are 21 seats and, of these, eight elected Conservatives, eight elected Liberals, and five elected New Democrats. Liberal slippage, much of it to the Greens, will likely mean Conservative gains in suburban Vancouver: namely, in North Vancouver, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast and Richmond. This will mean the loss of Liberal Don Bell, turfed Liberal-turned-Green Blair Wilson, and Liberal Raymond Chan. The NDP should win the same five it won before, while Liberals will likely fend off strong challenges in Newton-North Delta (Sukh Dhaliwal), Vancouver Centre (Hedy Fry), and Vancouver-Quadra (Joyce Murray). Many expect David Emerson’s former riding of Vancouver-Kingsway to go NDP, but I think Wendy Yuan of the Liberals will eke out an extremely narrow win.

2006 result: Con 8, Lib 8, NDP 5
2008 prediction: Con 11, Lib 5, NDP 5

BC Interior

There are nine seats in BC’s interior and, in 2006, they split 7-2 Conservative-NDP. The NDP should easily hold its BC Southern Interior and Skeena-Bulkley Valley seats, plus are likely to present a strong, but ultimately unsuccessful, challenge in Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo.

2006 result: Con 7, NDP 2
2008 prediction: Con 7, NDP 2

Vancouver Island

There are six seats on Vancouver Island: 3 NDP, 2 Conservative, 1 Liberal. With the NDP candidate withdrawing in Saanich-Gulf Islands, the Liberals and Greens are both eyeing this seat. The race will be closer than ever, but I think the Conservative will prevail as the opposition vote splits.

Neighbouring Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca is also a close race, perhaps too close to call. Liberal – once Reform Party – MP Keith Martin is fending off very strong challenges from both the Conservatives and NDP, the latter team of which gained a pile of volunteers following the events in Saanich-GI. I will call this race narrowly for the incumbent.

In Vancouver Island North perennial competitors Catherine Bell of the NDP (currently the MP) and John Duncan of the Conservatives (formerly the MP) are again facing off. A mere 600 votes separated the two last time. I predict slight momentum for the Conservatives here, meaning that John Duncan will likely regain his seat.

2006 result: Con 2, Lib 1, NDP 3
2008 prediction: Con 3, Lib 1, NDP 2

BC Provincial total

2006 result: Con 17, Lib 9, NDP 10
2008 prediction: Con 21, Lib 6, NDP 9

Northern Canada

I’m also including the three northern seats (one for each Territory) here. The Liberals will easily hold the Yukon, while the NDP will easily hold Western Arctic. The wild card is Nunavut, where prominent candidates for all four parties are running. I place my bet on former territorial cabinet minister Leona Aglukkaq, who is running for the Conservatives.

2006 result: Con 0, Lib 2, NDP 1
2008 prediction: Con 1, Lib 1, NDP 1

Election Oracle 2008: Alberta

In Alberta, election drama comes at a premium price. Who won every seat in 2006? Who’s likely to again win every seat? Who always wins? Yeah, you guessed it.

In this campaign, only the riding of Edmonton-Strathcona has a real chance of electing a non-Tory. There, NDP candidate Linda Duncan is running a very high-profile campaign. In 2006, she came less than 5,000 votes from toppling MP Rahim Jaffer. This time, known Liberals have been endorsing Duncan while Layton has been visiting Edmonton a bunch of times. The race is truly neck-and-neck. It’s hard to defeat an incumbent, so I’m predicting a slim Tory hold. I hope I’m wrong.

A couple of other candidates have longer shot odds of winning. These are former Alberta NDP leader Ray Martin running in Edmonton East (the only federal Alberta riding the NDP’s ever held), independent Jimmy Ford in Edmonton-Sherwood Park, and Liberal James Wachowich in Edmonton Centre (Anne McLellan’s old riding). I predict Conservative wins in these ridings.

2006 result: Con 28
2008 prediction: Con 28

Election Oracle 2008: Atlantic Canada

In Atlantic Canada, the Tories were set for larger gains, but have slid in the last half of the campaign. While they are weak in Nova Scotia and face Danny Williams’s ABC campaign in Newfoundland and Labrador, they are likely to win additional seats in New Brunswick. The NDP is also very strong in the region, but may have difficulty translating the increased support into additional seats.

Newfoundland and Labrador

In Newfoundland and Labrador, Premier Danny Williams has led the ABC ("Anyone but Conservative") campaign against the federal Tories. Given Williams’s popularity, two of the three Conservative MPs for the province have opted not to run again. That leaves only the riding of Avalon, where I predict Conservative MP Fabian Manning will squeak through, despite the ABC campaign. In St. John’s, the NDP is running a strong campaign and will prevail in St. John’s East with former provincial leader Jack Harris as candidate. Though it's a close race, I predict the Liberals will take the city’s other riding, St. John’s West. The Liberals will clean up in the province’s remaining ridings.

2006 result: Con 3, Lib 4, NDP 0
2008 prediction: Con 1, Lib 5, NDP 1

Prince Edward Island

In PEI, the Liberals are likely to sail to victory in three ridings, but face a tough challenge in Egmont, the province’s fourth riding. There, former PEI Transportation Minister Gail Shea is attempting to win for the Conservatives and is ahead by several points, according to at least one riding poll. Nevertheless, I think the Liberals will hold this riding for yet another sweep of the province.

2006 result: Lib 4
2008 prediction: Lib 4

Nova Scotia

In Nova Scotia, the Conservatives are down several points, and up against Green leader Elizabeth May in Central Nova, former Conservative MP Bill Casey, who is running as an independent in Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley, and a number of strong NDP and Liberal candidates.

I predict a relatively easy hold for McKay in Central Nova and a tighter win for Gerald Keddy in South Shore-St. Margaret's against former NDP MP Gordon Earle. They Tories are likely to lose in close races against Bill Casey in the seat they formerly held and against Robert Thibault, the Liberal MP in West Nova who manages to offend someone every time he speaks.

The NDP are very strong and will easily retain their two seats. While they are putting on very impressive campaigns in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour, Central Nova, and South Shore-St. Margaret's, I predict no additional seats. With their strength in areas such as Cape Breton, the Liberals will likely easily hold their remaining seats.

2006 result: Con 3, Lib 6, NDP 2, Ind 0
2008 prediction: Con 2, Lib 6, NDP 2, Ind 1

New Brunswick

New Brunswick is the Atlantic province where the Conservatives stand the greatest chance of gaining seats. They will likely win in Fredericton, where the Liberal incumbent is not running again, and the three-way race of Madawaska—Restigouche, where former NB cabinet minister Jean-Pierre Ouellet is running. Saint John, where incumbent Liberal Paul Zed is facing former Tory MLA Rodney Weston, is the hardest race to predict, but I’m going to call it for the Conservatives given the very narrow Liberal win in 2006 and the Tory history of the riding (remember Elsie Wayne?).

2006 result: Con 3, Lib 6, NDP 1
2008 prediction: Con 6, Lib 3, NDP 1

Atlantic Canada total

2006 result: Con 9, Lib 20, NDP 3, Ind 0
2008 prediction: Con 9, Lib 18, NDP 4, Ind 1

Election Oracle 2008: Quebec

In Quebec, at the start of the campaign, the Tories were all set to scoop up perhaps up to 20 seats from the Bloc. But that all changed as the Bloc, aided by the other opposition parties, were able to make the arts funding cuts a major issue in Quebec. As Tory numbers plummeted to below their 2006 level, the Bloc continued to rise. It may be that the Bloc’s surge has abated, but for the Tories, the damage has been done: the majority is denied.

The Liberals remain strong in Montreal, and may win some Bloc seats there, but are a non-player in most regions outside the city. The NDP has seen its support more than double in the province, with strength in Montreal and the capital region, but that seems to have subsided late in the campaign. The Conservatives will struggle to hold on to their seats, while the Bloc will emerge from the campaign seemingly renewed.

Montreal region

In the region of Montreal, there are 22 seats, of which 10 were won by the Bloc and 12 by the Liberals in 2006. The NDP’s Thomas Mulcair later won the long-time Liberal seat of Outremont in a by-election and looks set to be re-elected there. The NDP is running a very strong campaign in Westmount-Ville Marie with star candidate Anne Lagacé-Dowson, but I predict a Liberal hold. The only other changes for this region are two Bloc seats that will likely be re-taken by the Liberals: former MP Eleni Bakopanos who lost by less than 1,000 votes in 2006 is running in Ahuntsic and will likely take that seat, while Justin Trudeau, son of Pierre, is running in a very tight race in Papineau and will likely defeat Bloc MP Vivian Barbot. Thierry St. Cyr, the Bloc MP for Jeanne-Le Ber, will likely hold his seat, despite a strong challenge from both the Liberals and NDP.

2006 result: Lib 12, Bloc 10, NDP 0
2008 prediction: Lib 13, Bloc 8, NDP 1

Northern Quebec

Northern Quebec has ten seats, of which nine were won by the Bloc in 2006. The Conservatives won one seat here in 2006 and added another in a 2007 by-election. I predict the Conservatives will hold their two seats, including Jonquière-Alma, where polls apparently show the Bloc ahead of Tory MP Jean Pierre Blackburn. The Bloc should easily hold their remaining eight seats.

2006 result: Con 1, Bloc 9
2008 prediction: Con 2, Bloc 8

Rest of Quebec

The rest of Quebec, which comprises a variety of very different regions, contains 43 seats. In 2006, 32 went Bloc, while 9 went Conservative, one went Liberal, and one elected an independent. The rise in Bloc fortunes has shifted the political scene toward one very similar to 2006 and I expect remarkably few changes as a result.

The only change I do predict is that the Conservatives will lose MP Luc Harvey in Louis-Hébert. While they’ll hold the rest of their seats, they’ll be disappointed when Senator Michael Fortier loses in Vaudreuil-Soulanges. Independent quasi-Tory MP André Arthur will have no problem being re-elected in his riding.

As for challengers, in Brome-Mississquoi, it looks like the Bloc’s strength will ensure that Liberal Denis Paradis will fail in his comeback bid. In Gatineau and Hull-Aylmer, two seats very heavily targeted by the NDP, I predict re-election for the Bloc and Liberal candidates, respectively. In Rimouski, where Bloc-turned-Independent MP Louise Thibault is running, expect the new Bloc candidate to win. The Bloc should also win again in the closely watched ridings of Sherbrooke, Saint-Lambert, and Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot.

2006 result: Con 9, Bloc 32, Lib 1, NDP 0, Ind 1
2008 prediction: Con 8, Bloc 33, Lib 1, NDP 0, Ind 1

Provincial total

2006 result: Con 10, Bloc 51, Lib 13, NDP 0, Ind 1
2008 prediction: Con 10, Bloc 49, Lib 14, NDP 1, Ind 1

Election Oracle 2008: Ontario

In Ontario, the NDP has seen its numbers soar, with noted strength in Toronto, industrial regions, and northern Ontario. In suburban and exurban areas, the Liberals have seen losses to the Greens in particular, which has endangered many Liberal incumbents hoping to fend off Tory challenges. Had the bad economic news of the last couple of weeks not happened, the Tories would likely have cleaned up in many parts of the province. Instead, the Liberals saw a bit of a bump in their numbers and go into tomorrow’s election having likely reduced the number of losses they’ll see.

GTA/905 belt

In the GTA/905 region, into which I’m including Hamilton, Welland and Niagara Falls, there are 54 seats. The Liberals won 37 of these in 2006, leaving just 11 for the Conservatives and 6 for the NDP.

For this election, I’m predicting that the NDP’s Marilyn Churley will pick up Beaches-East York, knocking off Liberal MP Maria Minna. Peggy Nash will also fend off Liberal leadership contender Gerard Kennedy’s attempt to retake Parkdale-High Park, while Liberals hopes of making a return to Hamilton will also fail. In Welland, the NDP’s Malcolm Allen is likely to defeat sitting Liberal MP John Maloney, while in Oshawa, CAW activist Mike Shields will likely defeat Tory MP Colin Carrie by a very small margin. The NDP also threaten incumbents in Davenport and York South-Weston, but I predict the Liberals will hold on to those.

The Liberals also face losses to the Conservatives in this region. In Mississauga, Liberals Paul Szabo and Omar Alghabra are likely to face defeat, while floor crosser currently-Tory Wahid Khan will survive a strong Liberal challenge. Finally, Belinda Stronach’s old seat of Newmarket Aurora will return to the Tory fold under Lois Brown, while another Brown – Oakville Liberal MP Bonnie Brown – will see her seat move to the Tory side of the House.

2006 result: Con 11, Lib 37, NDP 6
2008 prediction: Con 15, Lib 30, NDP 9

Southwestern Ontario

Southwestern Ontario has 22 seats, in which 12 went Conservative, 7 went Liberal, and 3 went NDP in 2006. The Liberals have dropped somewhat throughout the region, while the NDP is strong in and around the Windsor region. Even a small decline in numbers for the Liberals will send three of their seats (Brant, Huron-Bruce and London West) into the Tory fold, which is what I expect to occur.

In this region, many eyes will be on Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound and Guelph for the strong Green challenges in those ridings (and a fantastic candidate for the NDP, Tom King, in Guelph), but I predict a Tory win in the former and a Liberal win in the latter. Some also speak of NDP strength in Essex, which neighbours Windsor; I predict the Tory will hold there.

2006 result: Con 12, Lib 7, NDP 3
2008 prediction: Con 15, Lib 4, NDP 3

Eastern Ontario

There are 20 seats in eastern Ontario, which includes the capital region, and it strongly voted Conservative in 2006. Only parts of Ottawa and Kingston managed to elect non-Tory MPs.

In this election, I predict no seat changes for the region. Liberal David McGuinty is perhaps most at risk of losing his seat, but I predict a Liberal hold. A lot of noise has been made about Ottawa Liberals Penny Collenette and David Pratt taking on NDP MP Paul Dewar and Tory MP John Baird, respectively, but both MPs will easily coast to re-election.

2006 result: Con 16, Lib 3, NDP 1
2008 prediction: Con 16, Lib 3, NDP 1

Northern Ontario

In northern Ontario, the NDP has been surging and Liberal incumbents are running scared. The NDP’s strong campaign, including its release of a northern Ontario platform and the relatively high profile of a number of its candidates, has help the party build on existing strengths in the region. Expect the party to pick up both Thunder Bay seats, plus Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing and Nickel Belt from the Liberals. I also predict a narrow win for the NDP in Kenora’s three-way race, but a loss against Sudbury Liberal Diane Marleau.

2006 result: Con 1, Lib 7, NDP 2
2008 prediction: Con 1, Lib 2, NDP 7

Provincial total

2006 result: Con 40, Lib 54, NDP 12
2008 prediction: Con 47, Lib 39, NDP 20

Election Oracle 2008: MB and SK

Here are the first of my regional predictions. Others will follow shortly.

Manitoba
In Manitoba, expect the Conservatives to hold all their seats, plus pick up St. Boniface from the Liberals, who won it by only 1,500 votes in the last election. The Liberals are also likely to lose Churchill to NDP candidate Niki Ashton, leaving them with just one seat of the 14 in Manitoba.

2006 result: Con 8, Lib 3, NDP 3
2008 prediction: Con 9, Lib 1, NDP 4

Saskatchewan
I also predict few changes for neighbouring Saskatchewan. There’s been a lot of talk about Liberal Ralph Goodale facing a tough challenge from the Conservatives. Others have suggested that Conservatives Tom Lukiwski and Andrew Scheer might be in tough fights with the NDP. Still others point to newly elected Tory MP Robert Clarke struggling to fend off Liberal David Orchard. I expect all these MPs to be re-elected.

Where the races are interesting are in two seats in which incumbents are not running for re-election: Palliser and Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar. Both seats feature close races between the Conservatives and the NDP. I think former Moose Jaw Mayor Ray Boughen will take Palliser for the Conservatives, while the NDP’s Nettie Wiebe will prevail in Saskatoon.

2006 result: Con 12, Lib 2, NDP 0
2008 prediction: Con 12, Lib 1, NDP 1

Election Oracle 2008

Prairie Topiary's Election Oracle is back!

I'll post detailed province-by-province predictions here on Monday afternoon after I take a glance at the last of Nanos's daily tracking polls.

This weekend's polls show the Conservatives recovering some of the points they lost to the Liberals in the past week. The Conservatives are still down significantly in Atlantic Canada and Quebec, while the NDP looks to be down a few points in BC. Nanos shows the NDP's numbers holding strong at 22% nationally, which is probably the highest they've been all campaign. I suspect that the NDP pretty much neutralized any strategic voting lure of the Liberals, though a decline in their numbers tomorrow might suggest otherwise.

Of course, accurate predictions require something more than just poll numbers. They have to include consideration of regional swings, the influence of "star" personalities and the added recognition factor that comes from being an incumbent, as well as the role of strong local organization and "top of mind" brand status (e.g., Greens are less "top of mind" and tend to worse than the polls suggest on election day, while the opposite is often the case for the Liberals). Anticipating last minute shifts in support can also be key.

I may yet change these numbers, but right now I'm predicting the following:

Conservative minority (141 seats)

Liberal Official Opposition (76 seats)

Bloc (49 seats)

NDP (40 seats)

Independent 2

Green 0

That's a notable increase in seats for the Conservatives and NDP at the expense of the Liberals. It's not inconceivable that the NDP could surpass its highest ever popular vote (20.4% in 1988) and seat count (it held 44 seats following a win in a 1989 byelection). Passing the Bloc to become the third largest party in the House might also be possible, but passing the Liberals is unlikely, as that could only come through a Liberal meltdown in Toronto and Atlantic Canada, two areas where Liberal numbers appear to have been strengthening in the last week.

Stay tuned for more details tomorrow.

Photo: A female bowl bearer or mboko from the Luba culture in the Congo. Traditionally, bowl bearers are used by royal diviners to predict the future.