Independents, Greens to watch on election day

In this election, a number of ridings feature interesting independent and Green candidates. A few stand a legitimate chance of winning and several threaten to influence the final outcome on election day, but most will be simply noted for their colourful role in the campaign.

Here’s a summary of the independents, in rough descending order of anticipated impact on the final election result.

• Portneuf–Jacques-Cartier, QC
  André Arthur, the only independent MP elected in 2006, is a virtual shoo-in this time around. The right-wing former radio host votes with the Tories so frequently that they decided not to bother running a candidate against him. For all intents and purposes, this is a Tory candidate, though he’s likely too much of a maverick and too controversial (some say racist over his remarks about African students) to ever join the Tory caucus. Other parties nominated candidates only at the last minute. Expect Mr. Arthur to be easily re-elected.

• Cumberland–Colchester–Musquodoboit Valley, NS
  Bill Casey is a the Conservative MP who was booted out of caucus for voting against the 2007 Conservative budget, given his belief that it betrayed the Atlantic Accord with his province and Newfoundland and Labrador. Very popular locally in this typically safe Conservative riding, he is likely the candidate to beat in this election.

• Rimouski-Neigette–Témiscouata–Les Basques, QC
  Louise Thibault was a socially conservative Bloc MP who quit the party over differences with left-leaning leader Gilles Duceppe. She’s running a strong campaign as an independent, which is likely to split the Bloc's vote and make this race what may be one of Canada’s first five-way races (the Conservatives, Liberals and NDP are all contenders to some degree). With the Bloc recent resurgence, I anticipate a loss to the new Bloc candidate, Claude Guimond.

• Welland, ON
  Past NDP candidate Jody DiBartolomeo decided to run as an independent after losing the nomination to Malcolm Allen, a local councillor, deputy Mayor and CAW rep. The poor sport, who put in a very impressive second place showing for the NDP in 2006, threatens to split the NDP vote in this very tight three-way race.

• Cardigan, PEI
  Larry McGuire, brother of Egmont Liberal MP Joe McGuire, is running as an independent in Cardigan. Larry McGuire is known for controversially suggesting in 2006 that “fat-cat, well-heeled Tories” in provincial government jobs would be replaced by Liberals if that party was elected to government in P.E.I. The Liberal leader refused to sign his nomination papers, after which point he decided to run provincially as an independent, earning 19% of the vote. He’s back at it again and, while he stands little chance of winning, there is a possibility he could draw enough votes from Liberal MP Lawrence MacAuley to cause him to lose to the Tory candidate.

• Kildonan–St. Paul, MB
  Ex-Liberal candidate Lesley Hughes is now running as an independent after being turfed from the Liberal party over a column she wrote a number of years ago. While she’ll likely pull in several thousand votes on election day, her presence in the campaign is unlikely to have any effect on the final outcome in this race, where Tory MP Joy Smith is expected to be re-elected.

• Calgary Northeast, AB
  Local cab company founder Roger Richard decided to run as an “independent conservative” after losing the Conservative nomination to replace MP Art Hanger. He alleges “unscrupulous nomination practices” are to blame for his loss to winner Devinder Shory, a lawyer. Despite running a relatively high-profile campaign, Richard is likely to come up short against Shory, whose party took 65% of the vote in 2006.

• Edmonton-Sherwood Park, AB
  Another riding with controversy over the Conservatives’ nomination process features an independent candidate. James Ford, a former Tory, is running against Tory Tim Uppal, in protest against rules that allowed the Tory to win by announcing a run at the last minute and stacking the meeting with supporters. In 2006, the Tories won with 64% of the vote, far ahead of the next closest rival with 14%. Expect an easy Tory win despite the controversy.

While the Greens appear unlikely to elect any MPs on October 14th, they will put in an impressive showing in a number of ridings across the country, particularly in suburban/exurban Ontario and BC. Here’s a summary of the ridings to watch, including all those in which they earned at least 10% of the vote in 2006. If the Greens were ever to shoot up further in the polls, these are the seats they'd be most likely to start winning.

• Central Nova, NS
  Green party leader Elizabeth May is running against Conservative incumbent Peter MacKay and NDP candidate Louise Lorefice in what, by all accounts, is an uphill battle for her. In 2006, the Green candidate received only 671 votes, a mere 1.6%, in what is a traditional Conservative riding. Recent polling also shows Green Party support lower in Atlantic Canada than anywhere else but Quebec. Still, with their leader running here, this remains one of the Green Party’s best hopes for electing an MP.

• Dufferin—Caledon, ON
  Ard Van Leeuwen is the Green candidate in a riding in which they earned an impressive 10% in 2006. Gains made largely at the expense of the Liberal Party in this Tory riding may push Van Leeuwen over the 20% mark.

• Bruce–Grey–Owen Sound, ON
  Dick Hibma is running for the Greens in a riding where their 2006 result was 13%, which was one of their strongest showings in the country. In the last provincial election, the party won a whopping 33%, a result which put them second to the Conservative candidate. In this election, they stand a strong chance of placing a distant second behind Conservative MP Larry Miller.

• Guelph, ON
  Mike Nagy ran a strong campaign during the by-election that was superseded by the current federal campaign. The federal campaign inevitably focuses on two or three national leaders, which will probably result in lower support for Nagy than the by-election, where the focus is much more on the strength of the local candidates, would have. Near the close of the by-election, a Green Party-sponsored poll placed Nagy’s support at 24%, behind the first place Liberal. The race nevertheless remains one of four serious contenders, with the Liberal and Tory most likely to duke it out for first place.

• London North Centre, ON
  Mary Ann Hodge is running for the Greens in the riding in which Elizabeth May captured 26% of the vote while running as the candidate in 2006. Without such a high-profile candidate, expect the Greens to sink back down to a respectable 10% to 15% of the vote this time around.

• Ottawa Centre, ON
  The Green Party’s deputy leader, David Chernushenko, won 10% here in 2006 and was set to run again, but withdrew as the party’s candidate. While Jen Hunter, the party’s new candidate, is likely to carry her party’s share of the vote to a higher echelon, the result in this relatively safe NDP riding is unlikely to change.

• Peterborough, ON
  Emily Berrigan is the candidate in Peterborough, an area the Greens cited as having the fastest growing membership in Ontario in early 2007. While the party is likely to see an increase from the 5% it received in 2006, the Conservative MP is likely to be re-elected, while the Liberals and NDP fight it out for second place.

• Calgary Centre-North, AB
  Eric Donovan is the Green candidate in a riding that voted 13% Green in 2006, making it one of the party’s strongest ridings in one of its strongest cities. Like in the other Calgary ridings, expect the Conservative candidate to be elected in a landslide while the other candidates duke it out for second place.

• Calgary Centre, AB
  Kim Warnke is the Green party’s candidate in Calgary Centre, where the Greens received 11% in 2006.

• Calgary West, AB
  Randall Weeks is the Green party’s candidate in Calgary West, where the Greens received 10% in 2006.

• Wild Rose, AB
  Lisa Fox is running in Wild Rose, a riding that includes Airdrie, Cochrane, Canmore, and Banff. The Greens came in second place in 2006, with 11% of the vote.

• British Columbia Southern Interior
  This currently NDP seat includes left-leaning communities of BC, such as Nelson. Those same communities provide some base for the Green Party, which earned 11% here in 2006. Andy Morel is the Green candidate in this election.

• Saanich–Gulf Islands, BC
  This seat may offer the Greens their most likely opportunity for winning a seat in the wake of NDP candidate Julian West’s withdrawal. Green candidate Andrew Lewis, the Party’s Deputy Leader and perennial local candidate, first made a splash when he achieved 25% in a local provincial constituency. In this election, he is facing off against Liberal candidate Briony Penn, a popular former member of the Greens and incumbent Conservative MP Gary Lunn. With Conservative numbers up in BC, the Liberal and Green candidates face an uphill battle to defeat the Tory, even with the NDP now out of the race.

• Vancouver Centre, BC
  Adriane Carr, the former provincial leader and another Deputy Leader of the federal Greens is running in what has been billed as a high-profile four-way race. The incumbent, Liberal Hedy Fry, faces academic Michael Byers of the NDP and former provincial politician Lorne Mayencourt of the Conservatives, in addition to Ms. Carr. With such high-profile candidates and a mere 6% 2006 base to build on, Ms. Carr faces long odds in this race.

• West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast, BC
  Blair Wilson, originally elected for then turfed from the Liberal Party for alleged spending irregularities, is the Green Party’s first MP, having joined the party just before the current election campaign. Facing a likely Tory win, he is unlikely to be elected under his new party’s banner.

• Nunavut
  Peter Ittinuar is the Green Party’s candidate in Nunavut and is best-known the first-ever Inuit person elected as MP. He brings quite a storied past, which may hamper his ability to draw votes. First elected as a New Democrat MP in 1979, he later crossed the floor to become a Liberal. When he lost that party’s nomination in 1984, he ran as an independent but was defeated. Two years later, he was convicted for assaulting his wife. He sought to run again for the NDP in 1993, but was refused the opportunity. An Ontarian these days, he also recently ran for the Green Party’s nomination in Brant, but was defeated. In this election, he has acknowledged his past mistakes and is running a strong campaign. However, he faces very strong candidates for each of the other three parties, all of whom are targeting Nunavut this time around. The Greens received 6% in this riding in 2006.

Great campaign posters

Martin Patriquin points out some wonderful and hilarious campaign posters made by students of UQAM graphic design professor Nelu Wolfensohn. Definitely worth a gander.

Photo: A mock campaign poster created by UQAM students Evelyne Caillé-Guibert and Francis P. Paquin

Using bad policy to troll for votes

I very rarely agree with the Globe and Mail's Margaret Wente , but her piece today on the Tories' motivation for cutting arts programs and treating young offenders as adults is right on the money. Whether you think the policies are misguided or not (I do for reasons such as this and this), they're more about winning votes than solving problems.

It's possible that the arts cuts have won some votes for the Tories in Ontario's 905 belt, but they've sure backfired in Quebec, where the Bloc's numbers have just shot up about ten points at the Tories' expense.

Which polls are most accurate?

Here's an interesting post from Worthwhile Canadian Initiative, a keen blogger who's analyzed the seemingly inexplicable gaps in party support that we see between pollsters' numbers, particulary between the Liberals and Greens. He illustrates why poll watchers will be wise to trust Nanos's daily releases most.

Conversion: Libs sink in BC, Dippers target QC

This is interesting -- if true, we're talking about a complete meltdown of the Liberals in BC (as in possibly zero seats). Maybe Blair Wilson is far smarter than any pundits have given him credit for thus far.

The regional polls being tracked at Paulitics also confirm the NDP Quebec surge being talked about by CTV/Globe and Mail (Strategic Counsel polls of its 45 identified swing ridings). Peter Donolo of Strategic Counsel credits effective ads and newly perceived relevance following the NDP's win last year in Outremont.

The NDP publicly claims it's in the running in six to twelve seats in Quebec, but a smaller number of wins is more realistic, even if the poll numbers continue to improve. For those wondering about the most likely seats, they're as follows:

• Outremont, which the NDP's Thomas Mulcair picked up in last fall's byelection. In 2006, this seat had the NDP's strongest Quebec result, at 18%. Some pundits say the Liberals are a threat to take the seat back given that they've dominated it since 1935, but that's highly unlikely given the huge margin of victory in the byelection, the fact that most Mulcair votes came from the Bloc, Mulcair's high profile as an MP since then, and the fact that the Outremont Liberals have barely got their campaign off the ground (in week three!).
  


• Gatineau, where last election's narrowly defeated progressive Liberal MP, Francoise Boivin, is now running for the NDP. Jack has been in the riding at least twice so far this campaign (first time with the House of Commons in the background across the Ottawa River) and he'll likely be back. Dropping Bloc numbers and rising Con numbers in the province mean this is likely to be one of the few four-way races in the country.
  


• Hull-Aylmer, which neighbours Gatineau, was the NDP's third-strongest 2006 Quebec showing (15%), and features Pierre Ducasse, a former NDP leadership contender, as candidate. Ducasse, considered a strong candidate, is taking on Marcel Proulx, a Liberal who won with only 33% of the vote in 2006.
  


• Westmount-Ville Marie, which was called as a byelection that was then superceded by the general election. Running against Marc Garneau for the Liberals in this longtime safe Liberal seat is Anne Lagace-Dowson, a well-known CBC personality. She is considered to be in a close race in this riding, which includes not only well-off Westmount, but also more working class regions of Montreal.
  


• Jeanne-Le Ber, a Montreal riding where Quebec Green Party co-founder and high-profile environmental activist Daniel Breton is running for the NDP. While this might be a longer shot for the party, the Bloc, who currently holds the riding, has begun shifting their focus to the NDP as their primary challenger.

Those are the five most likely Quebec NDP wins, though a few other Montreal seats are also in play to some degree. I'm currently predicting wins in only Outremont and Gatineau, though that could very well change from here to the end of the campaign.

The one seat that isn't being talked about much as a potential pick-up for the NDP is one of the poorest ridings in Canada and one in which the NDP had its second-best showing of any Quebec seat in 2006: Laurier-Ste. Marie, currently held by Gilles Duceppe. If the NDP were to double its support in this seat, as polls for the Montreal area suggest is about right, it would be a hair away from winning. While I think it an unlikely win for the NDP this time, a good showing will leave it ripe for the taking once Duceppe retires as many expect him to before the subsequent election.

Sometime soon, Prairie Topiary will once again host its election oracle, featuring wondrous and amazing predictions for the coming election. Stay tuned.

Photo: The interior of the Notre Dame Basilica in Montreal, the city where the NDP's Quebec strength is currently concentrated.

Free Press Insiders polls

Is it just me or is the Winnipeg Free Press taking some liberties in the way that it's publishing the results of its Free Press Insiders polls?

The Free Press seems to be portraying the results as if they're representative of voting intentions in Manitoba and in specific Manitoba ridings. However, the poll isn't a random sample of eligible voters; it's a large Internet panel of Free Press readers. As such, the poll results are, at best, only representative of Free Press readers.

If the panelists differ from electors in their voting intentions -- something that's certainly possible given that the panelists are disproportionately Internet-savvy newspaper readers -- then the published numbers aren't indicative of party standings.

Elections Canada has some very specific rules associated with the publishing of election polls. These include indicating a poll's margin of error and whether the survey was not conducted using recognized statistical methods. I don't see either in the Free Press article.

Clearly, if a margin of error applies to these results, it should be indicated along with a note that riding-by-riding numbers are less robust than the province-wide numbers. If a margin of error doesn't apply because the poll isn't scientific, then that should be made clear in the article.

Even if Elections Canada's requirements were met in an adjoining article I missed, omitting the standard caveats from a presentation of the poll results threatens to mislead the voting public. For those thinking of voting strategically and relying on the Free Press to inform themselves, that's a big problem.


SEPT 26 UPDATE: Accompanying today's Free Press Insider poll results is a cautionary note that the poll results "do not necessarily reflect the views of the entire Winnipeg or Manitoba poplation" along with more information about the sample size and methodology. The inclusion of this information represents a big improvement -- it's clear and allows readers to put the poll results in context.

Dreaming big

Following a stream of historically poor Liberal poll numbers, some campaign observers are beginning to ask whether the NDP is about to surpass the Liberals (see here, here and here) and form Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition in the next parliament.

Indeed, the big fantasy of the federal NDP, and likely a prerequisite for the party to ever become a true national contender for power, has always been to surpass the Liberal Party. New Democrtas believe this milestone would give rise to a new political polarization between the right and left, thus damning the Liberals to the political wilderness forever.

This thinking is never far from the minds of NDP strategists, who face the tricky task of fighting the Tories without inadvertently sinking themselves by helping the Liberals who, for their part, adeptly hug the middle, adopting the rhetoric and policies of the right or the left in whatever combination is most likely to win them power.

The model of political polarization the NDP seeks emerged in Britain in the first half of the 20th century as the Labour Party surpassed the Liberals, who were never again to taste power. Canadian examples can be found in Saskatchewan, Manitoba and BC, though sometimes this is in a two-party system with the Liberals on the right (e.g., Saskatchewan's anti-medicare Liberals of the 1960s and 1970s and the current right-leaning Liberals in BC, who replaced the Social Credit Party there). Polarization is arguably occurring in Nova Scotia where the NDP appears close to winning power and the Liberals slip further into third place every election.

The big question: can it happen federally? As things stand, the New Democrats are likely to make gains and the Liberals likely to suffer losses, but can the shift be dramatic enough for the NDP to form Official Opposition? Some polls show the gap between the two parties to be as little as 3%, a level of competitiveness not seen since around 1990.

So what would it take?

First, it's important to note that the NDP need not necessarily surpass the Liberals in popular vote to surpass them in seats. This is because, generally-speaking, the Liberals' votes tend to be more evenly spread than either the Conservatives' or the NDPs' votes, which tend to be concentrated in particular areas. This tends to make the Liberals more efficient than other parties at converting votes into seats when they're popular but less inefficient than other parties when they're unpopular. In 1984, the Liberal-NDP gap was 28% to 19%, but the seat gap was only 40-30. Another percentage point or two might have pushed the NDP into second.

To come in second in this election, the NDP would likely have to win at least 60 seats or so, with the Liberals falling below that number. The losses for the Liberals in Ontario, where they won 54 seats in 2006, would have to especially large. Specifically, we'd need to see the following:

Ontario

Liberal numbers would have to drop below 30% from the mid-to-high 30s where they are now, while the NDP would have to climb 5 points or so to the low 20s, with noted strength in northern Ontario. The Tories would break 40%. Liberal losses to both the Conservatives and NDP, plus bleeding to the Greens in vulnerable suburban ridings, would result in a seat count of something like this:
Con 55 / Lib 28 / NDP 23 (2006: Con 40 / Lib 54 / NDP 12)

Quebec

Bloc numbers would have to stay over 30%, around where they're hovering now, as continued Bloc leakage to the Tories and NDP will produce new victories for the Liberals. The Tories would have to stay around their current 30% while the the NDP approached 20% (up from about 15% now). This might yield something like this:
Bloc 33 / Con 23 / Lib 14 / NDP 4 / Ind 1
(2006: Bloc 51 / Con 10 / Lib 13 / Ind 1)

Atlantic Canada

The Tories would need to gain only a few points (to maybe 36%) at the expense of the Liberals for them to steal a number of close Liberal seats in Nova Scotia, PEI and especially New Brunswick. This would offset Tory losses that are all but guaranteed in NL (a victim of Danny Williams's ABC campaign). The NDP, who are already up a few points over their 22% in 2006, would have to eke out a few new victories in St. John's and Nova Scotia. In seats, that would probably come out to something like this:
Con 14 / Lib 10 / NDP 7 / Ind 1
(2006: Con 9 / Lib 20 / NDP 3)

Prairies

On the prairies, a couple of points gained for the NDP over their 2006 numbers could give them up to five more seats (I can't see the party winning more than three in Saskatchewan). The Tories would have to win some, lose some, leaving the Liberals with 1-2 seats in total on the Prairies. That would leave something like the following seat count:
Con 46 / NDP 8 / Lib 2 (2006: Con 48 / NDP 3 / Lib 5)

BC

NDP numbers have been strengthening in BC in the last week. Two or three more points would put them over 30% and win them a few new seats at the expense of both other parties. The Liberals, who are bleeding to the Greens in suburban Vancouver, would see some seat losses to the Tories. That could leave the situation something like this:
Con 18 / NDP 17 / Lib 1 (2006: Con 17 / NDP 10 / Lib 9)

North

A territorial seat for each party as the Cons pick up Nunavut:
Con 1 / Lib 1 / NDP 1 (2006: Lib 2 / NDP 1)

Nationally

In order to make the above happen, the NDP would need something in the range of 22%, while the Liberals could have no more than about 26%. In addition, the shift in numbers would have to be in the right regions. The above seat counts total as follows:
Con 157 / NDP 60 / Lib 56 / Bloc 33 / Ind 2
(2006: Con 124 / Lib 103 / NDP 29 / Bloc 51 / Ind 1)

The above exercise, apart from being fun (it's still more fun than realistic at this point), suggests it's narrowly possible for the NDP to surpass the Liberals. I would suggest that it remains an uphill battle for the NDP and that they shouldn't underestimate the Liberals. Still, a lot can happen in the one month of campaign that remains.

If the Liberals somehow do tank and make a historically poor showing on October 14, they really shouldn't blame Dion, who seems to be a rather decent, intelligent politician. Rather, for a number of reasons, they can place the blame squarely on this fellow.

Photo: The House of Commons (facing the government side)