tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1663040415968229777.post8988487681458235025..comments2023-05-15T05:38:49.904-05:00Comments on Prairie Topiary: Election Oracle: 2011Prairie Topiaryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16232297726814938610noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1663040415968229777.post-39582414894921275022011-05-05T18:23:35.089-05:002011-05-05T18:23:35.089-05:00A lot of the post-election analysis I've read ...A lot of the post-election analysis I've read talks about "blue Liberals", the ones who supposedly shifted to the Tories during the campaign. I hadn't heard the term before, but it's probably borrowed from the "blue dog" term used to describe right-wing US Democrats. While there are some progressives within the Liberal Party, I've also never quite understood why some people refer to it as left-wing party.<br /><br />Further to the topic of getting predictions wrong, a study found that out those in the media were no better than a coin toss at prediting outcomes: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/05/110505171416.htm?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+sciencedaily+%28ScienceDaily%3A+Latest+Science+News%29&utm_content=Google+Reader<br /><br />We bloggers are way better of course!Prairie Topiaryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16232297726814938610noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1663040415968229777.post-73563830852201855552011-05-04T10:52:37.890-05:002011-05-04T10:52:37.890-05:00Part of Ekos Politics' post-mortem: "Ther...Part of Ekos Politics' <a rel="nofollow">post-mortem</a>: "There was a late movement of Liberal supporters to the Conservative Party which shifted about three points to the Conservatives"<br /><br />Could somebody tell me again why the Libs are 'progressive' or part of Canada's 'left'?Mikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10183891839987655906noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1663040415968229777.post-84838036119216298322011-05-04T09:22:15.472-05:002011-05-04T09:22:15.472-05:00It was a tough election to call. No way of knowing...It was a tough election to call. No way of knowing how the Lib and NDP vote distribution was going to affect the Cons. Turns out it helped the Cons a lot.<br />If 39.6% = majority, we really need electoral reform.Mikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10183891839987655906noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1663040415968229777.post-39167891509916961402011-05-03T22:40:20.981-05:002011-05-03T22:40:20.981-05:00Ouch, looks like I was a little off. I correctly ...Ouch, looks like I was a little off. I correctly predicted the outcome in 251 of 308 seats, which is 81%. That's worse than my 93% rate in 2008, but a little better than the 76% of Threehundredeight.com and electionpredictionproject.org. Democraticspace.com looks to have a result similar to mine.Prairie Topiaryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16232297726814938610noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1663040415968229777.post-20492558003041357202011-05-02T17:15:58.949-05:002011-05-02T17:15:58.949-05:00I'm tempted to think that the strategy of disi...I'm tempted to think that the strategy of disillusionment is partially intentional on the part of the Tories. Shrinking the electorate through lower turnout would tend to over-emphasize the Tory vote on a national basis. <br /><br />I think that's potentially the case; it could also be merely that with the old Reform-Alliance section of the conservative movement from the west in control of the Conservative Party's institutional mechanisms and grassroots that the party is just generally more hostile to what they perceive as threatening 'left-wingers' from Central Canada expressed through the Liberal Party of Canada.Luke Miguezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06109356987611860550noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1663040415968229777.post-91858571036316293302011-05-02T13:31:54.905-05:002011-05-02T13:31:54.905-05:00Thanks for the comments.
Atlantic Roofing, I coul...Thanks for the comments.<br /><br />Atlantic Roofing, I couldn't agree more. I think it was Kim Campbell who said that an election is no time to discuss serious issues. Now that we seem to be in an era of the permanent campaign, we seem to rarely ever discuss serious issues. It would be nice to see that change.<br /><br />Mike, I hope you're right about my estimates. If the NDP does win way more than I predict, most of those additional seats are likely to come in Quebec, where I've erred on the side of caution in predicting upsets. There's a scattering of about 5-10 in BC, ON and NS that the NDP could also win. We'll see tonight!Prairie Topiaryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16232297726814938610noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1663040415968229777.post-20535761993302407362011-05-02T09:37:40.211-05:002011-05-02T09:37:40.211-05:00Though I'm not the expert you are, PT, I wasn&...Though I'm not the expert you are, PT, I wasn't too far off last time when I predicted 136 seats for the Harperites:<br />http://stimpsonwrites.blogspot.com/2008/10/down-stretch.htmlMikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10183891839987655906noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1663040415968229777.post-46802329962684006652011-05-02T09:35:54.456-05:002011-05-02T09:35:54.456-05:00I think you've over-estimated the Con seat cou...I think you've over-estimated the Con seat count and under-estimated the NDP's. But then, I'm not the expert you are. I expect the Cons to get about the same number of seats as they had at disolution, and the NDP to win in about 100 ridings. The Libs will be an unhappy bunch tonight, and May has slightly worse than a 50-50 shot at winning her one seat for the Greens.Mikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10183891839987655906noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1663040415968229777.post-85071022764971840932011-05-02T03:26:35.745-05:002011-05-02T03:26:35.745-05:00It has been an exciting election because it has se...It has been an exciting election because it has seemed anything is possible. In fact, it has never been more clear that an election campaign is designed to get a party (re)elected and absolutely NOT to debate policy issues and ideas in the light of day. We need to maintain multi-party choice in Canada and we need more professional journalists shining light in the dark corners.Atlanta Roofinghttp://www.hotfrog.com/Companies/Atlanta-Roofing-Resourcesnoreply@blogger.com