tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1663040415968229777.post4758887980040419221..comments2023-05-15T05:38:49.904-05:00Comments on Prairie Topiary: Drawing Winnipeg's new electoral divisionsPrairie Topiaryhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16232297726814938610noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1663040415968229777.post-53196504884725254582008-04-29T19:24:00.000-05:002008-04-29T19:24:00.000-05:00Jen Howard and her people will find someone elese ...Jen Howard and her people will find someone elese to take over from McGifford and it won't be Allum.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1663040415968229777.post-49637360006871996432008-04-29T14:56:00.000-05:002008-04-29T14:56:00.000-05:00Whaaa? McGifford leaving and being replaced by a m...Whaaa? McGifford leaving and being replaced by a man? Isn't that blasphemy in South Winnipeg?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1663040415968229777.post-15971234286829347982008-04-24T22:04:00.000-05:002008-04-24T22:04:00.000-05:00McGifford is done for anyways.She is not running a...McGifford is done for anyways.<BR/><BR/>She is not running again.<BR/><BR/>Bring on Jamie Allum!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1663040415968229777.post-84377517679393057342008-04-24T20:29:00.000-05:002008-04-24T20:29:00.000-05:00If the boundaries are close to the those of the ol...If the boundaries are close to the those of the old seat, I think the sitting MLA typically makes a go of it in that seat even if it may be a little tougher to win.<BR/><BR/>If there is more than one incumbent for a newly-created constituency, a number of things can happen:<BR/><BR/>(1) Sometimes, long in the tooth MLAs will see it as a good time to retire gracefully and move on to other things.<BR/><BR/>(2) If party fortunes are good, a higher profile MLA may choose to move over into a seat held by another party in the hopes of snatching a victory -- this is what Becky Barrett did when she gave up Wellington to Santos and took on Liberal Lamoureux in Inkster (she won, but retired in the next election, which opened the door for Lam to take his seat back). Doing this can be risky, but it's likely to pay off in the event of a victory in the form of a cabinet position or high-profile critic position. <BR/><BR/>(3) Sometimes, something is worked out in a hotel room or backroom somewhere. For some reason, more often than not, this involves writing notes on a paper napkin. <BR/><BR/>(4) Barring any of the above, two MLAs may just duke it out for the nomination by letting the party members decide.Prairie Topiaryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16232297726814938610noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1663040415968229777.post-35371610306628777542008-04-24T17:36:00.000-05:002008-04-24T17:36:00.000-05:00I suspect that this boundary review will have quit...I suspect that this boundary review will have quite a bit of politcal backroom manuvering since with a few subtle changes the landscape can be changed quite a bit, espically in some Winnipeg ridings. The Tories, NDP and even the lowly Liberals will have their people coded in the language of "better representation" try to shift the boundaries to benifit themselves.<BR/><BR/>Good thing we have a mostly non-partisan group that reviews these things because the threat of gerry mandering could be huge.<BR/><BR/>It looks like from your post that MLA's Jen Howard, McGifford, and Ross might have the biggest changes in terms of wholesale shifts in their riding make-ups. Could one of them be pushed out like Santos was, in terms of having a riding disapear? How do nominations work if this happens?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1663040415968229777.post-65718461486965519482008-04-24T11:08:00.000-05:002008-04-24T11:08:00.000-05:00If MLAs think the proposed boundaries are unreason...If MLAs think the proposed boundaries are unreasonable, they'll have a chance to state their case at the hearings that follow the proposed maps. These hearings are an important part of the public debate and often lead to changes in the boundaries.<BR/><BR/>Critiques of proposed boundaries usually have more to do with what consitutes a community and whether boundaries could be better drawn, or whether certain regions are being "treated" unfairly. For example, if all inner city seats came out at quotient +5%, you can bet that there would be criticism on the basis that inner city folks would be consistently underrepresented, even if the margin was within the 10% allowed. Similar debates are likely to occur over what constitutes appropriate representation for rural and northern areas.<BR/><BR/>I'm not sure crass statements about it being harder to win would wash; such statements, if expressed, would probably be cloaked behind more general critiques about adequate representation.Prairie Topiaryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16232297726814938610noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1663040415968229777.post-65302658635408028842008-04-24T01:17:00.000-05:002008-04-24T01:17:00.000-05:00What kind of control do MLA's have over this?I thi...What kind of control do MLA's have over this?<BR/><BR/>I think Erin Sleby, Jen Howard and a few others might object if the changes makes their reelection a lot harder.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1663040415968229777.post-35597844858798494172008-04-23T23:26:00.000-05:002008-04-23T23:26:00.000-05:00A downtown riding would be a great idea. I like t...A downtown riding would be a great idea. I like the idea of having constituencies with boundaries that roughly approximate the boundaries of actual communities (rather than constituencies that cross rivers, expressways, railroads and other boundaries that often divide communities from one another. <BR/><BR/>The Broadway riding of 1988 to 1998 was one that encompassed all of downtown. It was held by Conrad Santos who, rumour has it, won the NDP nomination race by one vote over Marianne Cerilli in the late 1980s. When broadway vanished in 1998, he skipped over to run in Wellington. <BR/><BR/>A single downtown ward at the municipal level would be a great idea, too. Right now, the downtown is divided between two giant wards that cover huge swaths of the city. I'd much prefer having double the number of wards so that city councillors can legitimately represent communities. That, however, is the subject of another blog post.Prairie Topiaryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16232297726814938610noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1663040415968229777.post-37601524803440062662008-04-23T16:41:00.000-05:002008-04-23T16:41:00.000-05:00How about a downtown riding?It would go from Assin...How about a downtown riding?<BR/><BR/>It would go from Assiniboine to the Exchange District. Taking in all of the downtown residents, plus the new uraban condo's. The other boundaries could be the Red River over to Spence, taking in the Centential Park area and the area around U of W.<BR/><BR/>Might do the province some good to have an MLA commiteed to downtown issues almost exclusivly as his/her constiuents. I've lived on Edmonton Street for almost a decade and it would be nice having an MLA that almost only had apartment residents. Right now I feel in Fort Rouge that we often get ignored in favour of the home owners on the other side of the river.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1663040415968229777.post-15979380726839280222008-04-23T14:17:00.000-05:002008-04-23T14:17:00.000-05:00I hope to spend another blog post just on the poli...I hope to spend another blog post just on the political implications of these hypothetical boundary shifts. Some quick thoughts, though:<BR/><BR/>A new Crescentwood would probably be more Liberal-friendly and less NDP-friendly than either the current Fort Rouge or Lord Roberts, but would likely stay NDP even in a future election in which they lost power.<BR/><BR/>If River Heights moves westward, then it probably becomes more Tory-friendly (possibly making it tough for the good doctor to hold).<BR/><BR/>St. Norbert and Ft. Garry probably become more Tory-friendly as they take pieces of Fort Whyte.<BR/><BR/>The loss of Windsor Park from Southdale may may it tough for Erin Selby to hold in any future Tory resurgence.<BR/><BR/>The strength of the NDP margins last year thankfully mean an uphill battle for the Tories in Winnipeg no matter what the redistribution.Prairie Topiaryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16232297726814938610noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1663040415968229777.post-39887870584388880522008-04-23T13:17:00.000-05:002008-04-23T13:17:00.000-05:00Really what matters here is how it effects NDP MLA...Really what matters here is how it effects NDP MLA's.<BR/><BR/>Lord Roberts right now is pretty much a yellow dog NDP riding, but Fort Gary has been close in the past, plus even Fort Rouge became a race last time around with the Liberals making some big gains in some areas of the riding.<BR/><BR/>In the south, with some tinkering maybe Fort Whyte could be made less Tory friendly, and the suburban NDP seats made safer.<BR/><BR/>What is the point of being in power if you can't gerrmander?<BR/><BR/>I kid...I kid...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1663040415968229777.post-41983155343059133772008-04-22T22:21:00.000-05:002008-04-22T22:21:00.000-05:00Interesting idea's. I agree that Fort Rouge needs ...Interesting idea's. I agree that Fort Rouge needs to be changed, as a long time Assiniboine Avenue resident I find it strange that I live in the only riding that is on both sides of the river.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1663040415968229777.post-73540319328802583262008-04-22T20:15:00.000-05:002008-04-22T20:15:00.000-05:00You're right in that census definitions are probab...You're right in that census definitions are probably not the best to use in this case. However, either way, I'm still getting different numbers from you. <BR/><BR/>Like you, based on the Boundaries Commission data, I get 633,455 people in Winnipeg, but I get 514,955 for non-Winnipeg, for a total of 1,148,410. I think you might be missing a couple of constituencies in your sum.Prairie Topiaryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16232297726814938610noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1663040415968229777.post-32513975330008911162008-04-22T19:49:00.000-05:002008-04-22T19:49:00.000-05:00To clarify my earlier post, 57%(633,455 people) is...To clarify my earlier post, 57%<BR/>(633,455 people) is the the total population of the 31 seats currently defined as "Winnipeg" even though seats like: Southdale, St. Norbert & Seine River extend outside of the perimeter.<BR/>43% (483,790) is the total population of the remaining seats.<BR/>57% of 57 seats is 32.49.<BR/>Hence the number of "Winnipeg" should be increased.<BR/>The definition of population was the current parameter not the statistical one.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1663040415968229777.post-13958980282938075222008-04-22T16:39:00.000-05:002008-04-22T16:39:00.000-05:00Thanks for your comment. I based my numbers on th...Thanks for your comment. I based my numbers on those provided by the boundaries commission, which led me to 31 seats for Winnipeg. <BR/><BR/>Looking at Statistics Canada's 2006 census data confirms this: the City of Winnipeg has 55.17% of the Province's population, which is the same share as 31.4 of 57 seats. So 31 it will be!<BR/><BR/>Winnipeg CMA population numbers, which are often quoted, are higher at 60.5%.Prairie Topiaryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16232297726814938610noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1663040415968229777.post-12254739926843959612008-04-22T14:25:00.000-05:002008-04-22T14:25:00.000-05:00Interesting, but why is it based on the premise th...Interesting, but why is it based on the premise that Winnipeg doesn't deserve another seat?<BR/>If the population has moved into Winnipeg then its citizens deserve representation. The Fort Whyte area also contains the Waverley West so further growth is expected.<BR/>In fact if you do the math the Winnipeg seats hold 57% of the population so we should have 57% of the seats. That would be 32.49 so we can round off to 32 or 33. Although 32 seems more likely.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com